College of Natural Sciences


The University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium

Expected number of COVID-19 cases arriving at school


Notes: We project the expected number of students or staff who will arrive infected in a given week based on recent estimates for COVID-19 prevalence in each US county and the size of a school or pod. We estimate disease prevalence by first obtaining county-level reported case counts from the New York Times ( and then correcting for underreporting. We assume a median reporting rate of 20% and lower and upper bounds of 10% and 33%, respectively. This risk model was originally published in the New York Times on July 31, 2020 ( and described in this report ( Georgia Institute of Technology hosts a complementary event planning tool ( that provides COVID-19 risk assessments for a wider variety of gatherings, as described in Nature Human Behavior (

Our risk estimates are based on county-level data provided by the New York Times (NYT), which are prone to occasional reporting errors. Please check our log for known issues and alert us at with additional concerns.

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