College of Natural Sciences

COVID-19 Reports & Publications

August 2022

Kaiming Bi, Anass Bouchnita, Oluwaseun F. Egbelowo, Spencer Fox, Michael Lachmann, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Scenario projections for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants in the US and Texas . August 4, 2022. DOI: 10.15781/zvv0-rh65
Xutong Wang, Zhanwei Du, Emily James, Spencer J Fox, Michael Lachmann, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Darlene Bhavnani. The effectiveness of COVID-19 testing and contact tracing in a US city, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, August 15, 2022, 119 (34) e2200652119, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2200652119

May 2022

Spencer J. Fox, Kaitlyn Johnson, Briana Owirodu, Jennifer Johnson- Leung, Marcel Elizondo, Desmar Walkes, Lauren Ancel Meyers, COVID-19 risk assessment for public events. May 9, 2022. DOI: doi.org/10.15781/w3hx-4j68

April 2022

Du, Z., Wang, L., Bai, Y., Wang, X., Pandey, A., Fitzpatrick, M. C., ... & Meyers, L. A. (2022). Cost-effective proactive testing strategies during COVID-19 mass vaccination: A modelling study. The Lancet Regional Health-Americas, 8, 100182.

March 2022

Du, Z., Fox, S. J., Ingle, T., Pignone, M. P., & Meyers, L. A. (2022). Projecting the Combined Health Care Burden of Seasonal Influenza and COVID-19 in the 2020–2021 Season. MDM policy & practice, 7(1), 23814683221084631.

February 2022

Audirac, M., Tec, M., Garcia-Tejeda, E., & Fox, S. (2022). Estimating Importation Risk of Covid-19 in Hurricane Evacuations: A Prediction Framework Applied to Hurricane Laura in Texas. arXiv preprint arXiv:2203.00136.
Spencer J. Fox, Michael Lachmann, Mauricio Tec, Remy Pasco, Spencer Woody, Zhanwei Du, Xutong Wang, Tanvi A. Ingle, Emily Javan, Maytal Dahan, Kelly Gaither, Mark E. Escott, Stephen I. Adler, S. Claiborne Johnston, James G. Scott, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Real-time pandemic surveillance using hospital admissions and mobility data. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, February 15, 2022, 119 (7) e2111870119. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2111870119

January 2022

Anass Bouchnita, Spencer J. Fox, Michael Lachmann, Jose L. Herrera-Diestra, Graham Gibson, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Omicron scenario projections for the Austin-Round Rock MSA , January 25, 2022. DOI: doi.org/10.15781/wtby-xg72
Anass Bouchnita, Spencer J. Fox, Michael Lachmann, Jose L. Herrera-Diestra, Graham Gibson, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Scenario Projections: The Emergence of Omicron in the US - January 2022 , January 6, 2022. DOI: doi.org/10.15781/kwym-d720
Bi, K., Herrera-Diestra, J. L., Bai, Y., Du, Z., Wang, L., Gibson, G., ... & Meyers, L. A. (2022). The risk of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant emergence in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). medRxiv.

December 2021

Anass Bouchnita, Spencer J. Fox, Michael Lachmann, Jose L. Herrera-Diestra, Graham Gibson, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Scenario Projections: The Emergence of Omicron in the US. December 16, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15781/5kxe-ms96
Spencer Woody, Maytal Dahan, Spencer J. Fox, Kelly Gaither, Michael Lachmann, Lauren Ancel Meyers, James G. Scott, Mauricio Tec, et.al. Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US. medRxiv December 10, 2021. doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.03.21250974
Yuan Bai, Zhanwei Du, Mingda Xu, Lin Wang, Peng Wu, Eric H. Y. Lau, Benjamin J.Cowling, Lauren Ancel Meyers, International risk of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant importations originating in South Africa, medRxiv 2021.12.07.21267410, December 7, 2021, DOI: doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.07.21267410

November 2021

Nazlican Arslan, David P. Morton, Janet Pichette, Desmar Walkes, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. Projections for Austin’s COVID-19 Staged Alert System, Incorporating Reported Cases as Additional Indicator . November 17, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15781/fs56-5p42

October 2021

Nazlıcan Arslan, David P. Morton, Desmar Walkes, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. Projections for Variants of Concern under Austin’s COVID-19 Staged-Alert System. October 20, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15781/f8gz-z961
Perofsky A. C., Meyers L. A., Abondano L. A., Fiore A. D., Lewis R. J. Social groups constrain the spatiotemporal dynamics of wild sifaka gut microbiomes. Wiley Online Library, October 11, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1111/mec.16193
Ding Y., Agrawal S. K., Cao J., Meyers L.A., Hasenbein J.J. (2021). Surveillance testing for rapid detection of outbreaks in facilities. arXiv preprint arXiv:2110.00170, October 1, 2021

September 2021

Michelle Audirac, Mauricio Tec, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Spencer J. Fox, Cory Zigler.
How Timing of Stay-at-home Orders and Mobility Reductions Impacted First-Wave COVID-19 Deaths in US Counties, September 26, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.24.20238055
Remy Pasco, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Mitigating COVID-19 in schools with face masks and proactive testing . September 14, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15781/x3x7-rp26
Moghadas S.M., Sah P., Shoukat A., Meyers L.A., Population Immunity Against COVID-19 in the United States, Annals of Internal Medicine, September 14, 2021, https://doi.org/10.7326/M21-2721

August 2021

Kaitlyn E. Johnson, Remy Pasco, Spencer Woody, Michael Lachmann, Darlene Bhavnani, Jessica Klima, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 projections for the reopening of the University of Texas at Austin in fall 2021 . August 11, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15781/5pta-kx30
Spencer J. Fox, Michael Lachmann, Anass Bouchnita, Spencer Woody, Remy Pasco, Maureen Johnson-Leon, Tanvi Ingle, Kaitlyn Johnson, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 scenario projections for Austin, Texas - August 2021 . August 06, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15781/f02n-vn59
Capobianco R., Kompella V., Ault J., Sharon G., Jong S., Fox S., Meyers L.A., Wurman P., Stone P. Agent-based markov modeling for improved COVID-19 mitigation policies Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research 71, 953-992, August 18, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1613/jair.1.12632

July 2021

Michael Lachmann, Anass Bouchnita, Spencer Woody, Remy Pasco, Maureen Johnson-Leon, Kaitlyn Johnson, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 scenario projections for Austin, Texas. July 19, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15781/gc9z-9h56
Hayden F.G., Asher J., Cowling B.J., et al. Reducing influenza virus transmission: the value of antiviral treatment. Clinical Infectious Diseases: An Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. 2021 Jul. DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciab625
Frederick G Hayden, Jason Asher, Benjamin J Cowling, Aeron C Hurt, Hideyuki Ikematsu, Klaus Kuhlbusch, Annabelle Lemenuel-Diot, Zhanwei Du, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Pedro A Piedra, Takahiro Takazono, Hui-Ling Yen, Arnold S Monto, Reducing Influenza Virus Transmission: The Potential Value of Antiviral Treatment, Clinical Infectious Diseases, 2021;, ciab625, https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciab625

June 2021

Yang H, Sürer O, Duque D, Morton D, Singh B, Fox SJ, Pasco R, Pierce K, Rathouz P, Valencia V, Du Z, Pignone M, Escott M, Adler SI, Johnston SC, Meyers LA, Design of COVID-19 staged alert systems to ensure healthcare capacity with minimal closures, Nature Communications, published June 18, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23989-x
Zhanwei Du, Lin Wang, Songwei Shan, Dickson Lam, Tim K. Tsang, Jingyi Xiao, Huizhi, Gao, Bingyi Yang, Sheikh Taslim Ali, Sen Pei, Isaac Chun-Hai Fung, Eric H. Y. Lau, Qiuyan Liao, Peng Wu, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Gabriel M. Leung, Benjamin J. Cowling. Pandemic fatigue impedes mitigation of COVID-19 in Hong Kong. Research Square, June 10, 2021. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-591241/v1

May 2021

Ingle TA, Morrison M, Wang X, Mercer T, Karman V, Fox SJ, Meyers LA, Forecasting Resources Needed to Protect People Experiencing Homelessness During COVID-19 doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0251153
Wang X, Du Z, Johnson K, Pasco R, Fox SJ, Lachmann M, McLellan JS, Meyers LA,
Effects of COVID-19 Vaccination Timing and Risk Prioritization on Mortality Rates, Emerging Infectious Disease Volume 27, Number 7—July 2021, https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2707.210118
Gillespie D, Meyers LA, Lachmann, Redd S, Zenilman J, The Experience of 2 Independent Schools With In-Person Learning During the COVID-19 Pandemic Journal of School Health, originally published March 25, 2021, doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/josh.13008
Nazlıcan Arslan, Ozge Surer, David P. Morton, Haoxiang Yang, Michael Lachmann, Spencer Woody, Spencer J. Fox, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 alert stages, healthcare projections and mortality patterns in Austin Texas. May 5, 2021.
Ingle T.A., Morrison M., Wang X., Mercer T., Karman V., Fox S., Meyers L.A., (2021) Projecting COVID-19 isolation bed requirements for people experiencing homelessness. PLoS ONE 16(5): e0251153. May 12, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0251153
Du Z., Wang L., Yang B., Ali S.T., Tsang T.K., Shan S., Meyers L.A. Risk for international importations of variant SARS-CoV-2 originating in the United Kingdom. Emerging Infectious Diseases. May 27, 2021, https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2705.210050

April 2021

Rathouz P., Valencia V., Chang P., Morton D., Yang H., Surer O., Fox S., Meyers L.A, Matsui E., Haynes, A. Survival analysis methods for analysis of hospitalization data: Application to COVID-19 patient hospitalization experience. medRxiv 2021.04.14.21255511; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.04.14.21255511
Woody S., Javan E., Johnson K., Pasco R., Johnson- León M., Lachmann M., Fox S., Meyers, L.A. Spatial distribution of COVID-19 infections and vaccinations in Austin, Texas. April 12, 2021. doi: https://doi.org/10.15781/h5sx-q859
Johnson, K. E., Lachmann, M., Stoddard, M., Pasco, R., Fox, S. J., Meyers, L.A., & Chakravarty, A. Detecting in-school transmission of SARS-COV-2 from case ratios and documented clusters. medRxiv. April 28, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.04.26.21256136

March 2021

Stockmaier, S., Stroeymeyt, N., Shattuck, E. C., Hawley, D. M., Meyers, L. A., & Bolnick, D. I. (2021). Infectious diseases and social distancing in nature. Science, 371(6533).
Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Spencer Woody, Kaitlyn E. Johnson, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Potential impacts of statewide relaxation of COVID-19 policies, the B.1.1.7 variant, and the vaccination in Austin , March, 2021.
Kaitlyn E. Johnson, Spencer Woody, Remy Pasco, Cameron Matsui, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Emergence of the B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2 variant at the University of Texas at Austin , March 5, 2021.
Kaitlyn E. Johnson, Spencer Woody, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Jessica Klima, Terrance S. Hines, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Early estimates of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant emergence in a university setting. medRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.03.05.21252541

February 2021

Kaitlyn E. Johnson, Spencer Woody, Remy Pasco, Cameron Matsui, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Early introductions and projections of the B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2 variant at the University of Texas at Austin, February 12, 2021.
Du, Z., Pandey, A., Bai, Y., Fitzpatrick, M. C., Chinazzi, M., y Piontti, A. P., Lachmann, M., Vespignani, A., Cowling, B.J., Galvani, A.P., & Meyers, L. A. (2021). Comparative cost-effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 testing strategies in the USA: a modelling study. The Lancet Public Health. February 4, 2021.
Pierce, K. A., Ho, E., Wang, X., Pasco, R., Du, Z., Zynda, G., Song, J., Wells, G., Fox, S. J., & Meyers, L. A. (2020). Early COVID-19 pandemic modeling: Three compartmental model cases studies from Texas, USA. Computing in Science & Engineering.
Kaitlyn E. Johnson, Spencer Woody, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Jessica Klima, Terrance S. Hines, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Supplementary Material to “Early estimates of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant emergence in a university setting". February 12, 2021
Cramer, Estee Y.; Lopez, Velma K.; Niemi, Jarad; George, Glover E.; Cegan, Jeffrey C.; Dettwiller, Ian D.; England, William P.; Farthing, Matthew W.; Hunter, Robert H.; Lafferty, Brandon; Linkov, Igor; Mayo, Michael L.; Parno, Matthew D.; Rowland, Michael A.; Trump, Benjamin D.; Wang, Lily; Gao, Lei; Gu, Zhiling; Kim, Myungjin; Wang, Yueying; Walker, Jo W.; Slayton, Rachel B.; Johansson, Michael; Biggerstaff, Matthew; and et al. "Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US". Statistics Publications, February 5, 2021, 10.1101/2021.02.03.21250974

January 2021

Xutong Wang, Zhanwei Du, Kaitlyn Johnson, Spencer Fox, Michael Lachmann, Jason S McLellan, Lauren Ancel Meyers. The impacts of COVID-19 vaccine timing, number of doses, and risk prioritization on mortality in the US. doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.18.21250071
Darria Long Gillespie, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Michael Lachmann, Stephen C Redd, Jonathan M Zenilman. doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250065
Cameron Matsui, Kaitlyn E. Johnson, Remy Pasco, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Campus Introduction Risks for Spring 2021 at the University of Texas at Austin. January 29, 2021. doi: https://sites.cns.utexas.edu/sites/default/files/cid/files/ut_spring_introductions.pdf
Emily Javan, Emily Kushnereit, Briana Betke, Spencer Woody, Remy Pasco, Kelly Pierce, Kaitlyn Johnson, Maureen Johnson-León, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Heterogeneous burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in Central Texas. January 27, 2021; doi: https://doi.org/10.15781/m60y-tc90
Zhanwei Du, Lin Wang, Bingyi Yang, Sheikh Taslim Ali, Tim K. Tsang, Songwei Shan, Peng Wu, Eric Lau, Benjamin J Cowling, Lauren Ancel Meyers. International risk of the new variant COVID-19 importations originating in the United Kingdom. medRxiv 2021.01.09.21249384; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.09.21249384
Haoxiang Yang, Michael Lachmann, Özge Sürer, Spencer J. Fox, David P. Morton, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Projecting Need for a COVID-19 Alternate Care Site (ACS) in Austin. Jan. 8, 2021. doi: https://doi.org/10.15781/3ff3-q193
Risanger, S., Singh, B., Morton, D., & Meyers, L. A. (2020). Selecting pharmacies for COVID-19 testing to ensure access. Health Care Management Science, 1-9.
Seyed M Moghadas, Thomas N Vilches, Kevin Zhang, Chad R Wells, Affan Shoukat, Burton H Singer, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Kathleen M Neuzil, Joanne M Langley, Meagan C Fitzpatrick, Alison P Galvani, The Impact of Vaccination on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreaks in the United States, Clinical Infectious Diseases, 2021;,ciab079, https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciab079
Moghadas, S. M., Vilches, T. N., Zhang, K., Wells, C. R., Shoukat, A., Singer, B. H., Meyers, L. A., Neuzil, K. M., Langley, J. M., Fitzpatrick, M. C., & Galvani, A. P. (2021). The impact of vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2020.11.27.20240051. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.27.20240051

December 2020

Du, Z., Fox, S. J., Ingle, T., Pignone, M. P., & Meyers, L. A. (2020). Projecting the combined healthcare burden of seasonal influenza and COVID-19. medRxiv. doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.20.20248599
Haoxiang Yang, Özge Sürer, Daniel Duque, David P. Morton, Bismark Singh, Spencer J. Fox, Remy Pasco, Kelly Pierce, Paul Rathouz, Zhanwei Du, Michael Pignone, Mark E. Escott, Stephen I. Adler, S. Claiborne Johnston, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Design of COVID-19 Staged Alert Systems to Ensure Healthcare Capacity with Minimal Closures. doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.26.20152520
Michael Lachmann, Spencer Fox, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. Potential Impact of Holiday Gatherings on COVID-19 Hospitalizations in Austin. doi: https://doi.org/10.15781/vwnv-7v31
Spencer J. Fox, Pratyush Potu, Michael Lachmann, Ravi Srinivasan, Lauren Ancel Meyers. The COVID-19 herd immunity threshold is not low: A re-analysis of European data from spring of 2020. medRxiv, December 3, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.01.20242289
Varun Kompella, Roberto Capobianco, Stacy Jong, Jonathan Browne, Spencer Fox, Lauren Meyers, Peter Wurman, Peter Stone. Reinforcement Learning for Optimization of COVID-19 Mitigation policies. Arxiv, October 20, 2020

November 2020

Shea, K., Borchering, R. K., Probert, W., Howerton, E., Bogich, T. L., Li, S., van Panhuis, W. G., Viboud, C., Aguás, R., Belov, A., Bhargava, S. H., Cavany, S., Chang, J. C., Chen, C., Chen, J., Chen, S., Chen, Y., Childs, L. M., Chow, C. C., Crooker, I., … Runge, M. C. (2020). COVID-19 reopening strategies at the county level in the face of uncertainty: Multiple Models for Outbreak Decision Support. medRxiv: the preprint server for health sciences, November 5, 2020, 2020.11.03.20225409. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.03.20225409
Emily M. Javan, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Estimating the unseen emergence of COVID-19 in the US. medRxiv, November 13, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.06.20053561

October 2020

Singh, Bismark, Simon Risanger, David Morton, Michael Pignone, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. Expanding Access to COVID-19 Tests through US Postal Service Facilities. Medical Decision Making, (October 2020). https://doi.org/10.1177/0272989X20969690.
Pasco RF, Fox SJ, Johnston SC, Pignone M, Meyers LA. Estimated Association of Construction Work With Risks of COVID-19 Infection and Hospitalization in Texas. JAMA Netw Open. 2020;3(10):e2026373. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.26373
Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Mauricio Tec, Remy Pasco, Zhanwei Du, Spencer Woody, Maytal Dahan, Kelly Gaither, Kelly Pierce, James Scott, Gordon Wells, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Texas Trauma Service Area (TSA) COVID-19 transmission estimates and healthcare projections - Updated Oct. 20, 2020. Oct. 20, 2020.
Wang X, Pasco RF, Du Z, Petty M, Fox SJ, Galvani AP, et al. Impact of social distancing measures on coronavirus disease healthcare demand, central Texas, USA. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Oct. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2610.201702

September 2020

Cameron Matsui, Remy Pasco, Kaitlyn Johnson, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Transmission Risks for Reopening The University of Texas at Austin. September 25, 2020. doi: https://doi.org/10.15781/gz1w-y228
Xutong Wang, Zhanwei Du, George Huang, Remy F. Pasco, Spencer J. Fox, Alison P. Galvani, Michael Pignone, S. Claiborne Johnston, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. Effects of cocooning on coronavirus disease rates after relaxing social distancing. Emerg Infect Dis. September 21, 2020. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2612.201930

August 2020

Kelly Pierce, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Remy Pasco, Lauren Ancel Meyers Houston Area COVID-19 School Introduction Risks August 28, 2020.
Cameron Matsui, Kaitlyn Johnson, Remy Pasco, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Campus Introduction and Gathering Risks for Reopening the University of Texas at Austin. August 20, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/aa7a-0c58
Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Mauricio Tec, Remy Pasco, Maureen Johnson, Jenny Lu, Zhanwei Du, Spencer Woody, Jennifer Starling, Maytal Dahan, Kelly Gaither, Kelly Pierce, James Scott, Gordon Wells, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Texas Trauma Service Area (TSA) COVID-19 transmission estimates and healthcare projections: August 19, 2020. August 19, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/tj6d-dm41
Zhanwei Du, Emily Javan, Ciara Nugent, Benjamin J. Cowling, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Using the COVID-19 to influenza ratio to estimate early pandemic spread in Wuhan, China and Seattle, US. August 12, 2020.
Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Mauricio Tec, Remy Pasco, MaureenJohnson, Jenny Lu, Zhanwei Du, Spencer Woody, Jennifer Starling, Maytal Dahan, Kelly Gaither, Kelly Pierce, James Scott, Gordon Wells, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Texas Trauma Service Area (TSA) COVID-19 transmission estimates and healthcare projections. Presented on August 1, 2020.

July 2020

Spencer J. Fox, Michael Lachmann, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Risks of COVID-19 Introductions as Schools Reopen. Presented to The New York Times July 31, 2020.
Duque, D., Morton, D. P., Singh, B., Du, Z., Pasco, R., & Meyers, L. A. (2020). Timing social distancing to avert unmanageable COVID-19 hospital surges. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(33), 19873-19878.
Spencer J. Fox, Michael Lachmann, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Campus Introduction Risks for School Reopenings. Presented on July 22, 2020.
Mauricio Tec, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Remy Pasco, Spencer Woody, Jennifer Starling, Maytal Dahan, Kelly Gaither, James Scott, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Austin COVID-19 transmission estimates and healthcare projections. July 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/jaa9-ff48
Scarpino SV, Scott JG, Eggo RM, Clements B, Dimitrov NB, Meyers LA (2020) Socioeconomic bias in influenza surveillance. PLoS Comput Biol 16(7): e1007941, July 9, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007941

June 2020

Spencer J Fox, Remy Pasco, Mauricio Tec, Zhanwei Du, Michael Lachmann, James Scott, Lauren Ancel Meyers. The impact of asymptomatic COVID-19 infections on future pandemic waves. medRxiv. 2020 June 22.
Wang X, Pasco RF, Du Z, Petty M, Fox SJ, Galvani AP, et al. Impact of social distancing measures on coronavirus disease healthcare demand, central Texas, USA. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Oct. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2610.201702
Spencer J Fox, Remy Pasco, Mauricio Tec, Zhanwei Du, Michael Lachmann, James Scott, Lauren Ancel Meyers. The impact of asymptomatic COVID-19 infections on future pandemic waves. medRxiv. 2020 June 22.
Haoxiang Yang, Daniel Duque, Özge Sürer, David P. Morton, Remy Pasco, Kelly Pierce, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Staged Strategy to Avoid Hospital Surge and Preventable Mortality, while Reducing the Economic Burden of Social Distancing Measures. Presented on June 15, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/hmf9-cx87
Du Z, Xu X, Wang L, Fox SJ, Cowling BJ, Galvani AP, et al. Effects of proactive social distancing on COVID-19 outbreaks in 58 cities, China. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 June 11. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2609.201932
Lauren Ancel Meyers, Zhanwei Du, Robert M. Krug. Hoping for a COVID-19 antiviral that limits virus spread. Nature Microbiology. June 2, 2020.
Zhanwei Du, Ciara Nugent, Alison P. Galvani, Robert M. Krug & Lauren Ancel Meyers. Modeling mitigation of inﬂuenza epidemics by baloxavir. Nature Communications. June 2, 2020.

May 2020

Daniel Duque, Mauricio Tec, David P. Morton, James Scott, Haoxiang Yang, Remy Pasco, Kelly Pierce, Spencer J. Fox, Michael Pignone, Parker Hudson, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. Staged Strategy to Avoid Hospital Surge and Preventable Mortality, while Reducing the Economic Burden of Social Distancing Measures. Presented to the city of Austin and Travis County on May 18, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/xw18-9m27
Daniel Duque, David Paul Morton, Bismark Singh, Zhanwei Du, Remy Pasco, Lauren Ancel Meyers, COVID-19: How to Relax Social Distancing If You Must. medRxiv. 2020 May 05.

April 2020

Kelly Pierce, Ethan Ho, Xutong Wang, Remy Pasco, Zhanwei Du, Spencer Fox, Greg Zynda, Jawon Song, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Healthcare Demand Projections: Beaumont-Port Arthur MSA, Texas. April 29, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/j8dw-ev41
Kelly Pierce, Ethan Ho, Xutong Wang, Remy Pasco, Zhanwei Du, Spencer Fox, Greg Zynda, Jawon Song, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Healthcare Demand Projections: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land MSA, Texas. April 28, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/z822-gr62
Daniel Duque, David P. Morton, Bismark Singh, Zhanwei Du, Remy Pasco, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 in Austin, Texas: Averting healthcare surges while relaxing social distancing. April 28, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/dvm2-w474
Woody, S., Tec, M. G., Dahan, M., Gaither, K., Lachmann, M., Fox, S., Meyers, L.A., & Scott, J. G. (2020). Projections for first-wave COVID-19 deaths across the US using social-distancing measures derived from mobile phones. medRxiv. April 26, 2020.
Du, Z., L. Wang, S. Cauchemez, X. Xu, X. Wang, B.J. Cowling, L.A. Meyers (2020). Risk for transportation of coronavirus disease from Wuhan to other cities in China. Emerging Infectious Diseases. DOI: 10.3201/eid2605.200146.
Xutong Wang, Zhanwei Du, George Huang, Spencer Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 in Austin, Texas: Relaxing Social Distancing Measures. April 23, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/cytm-ev55
Xutong Wang, Remy Pasco, Kelly Pierce, Zhanwei Du, Spencer Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Healthcare Demand Projections: Austin, Texas: April 20, 2020. Posted online April 21, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/503k-c813
Xutong Wang, Remy F Pasco, Zhanwei Du, Michaela Petty, Spencer J Fox, Alison P Galvani, Michael Pignone, S. Claiborne Johnston, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Impact of Social Distancing Measures on COVID-19 Healthcare Demand in Central Texas. medRxiv. 2020 Apr 22.
Emily Javan, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. The unseen and pervasive threat of COVID-19 throughout the US. medRxiv. 2020 Apr 18.
Moghadas SM, Shoukat A, Fitzpatrick MC, Wells CR, Sah P, Pandey A, Sachs JD, Wang Z, Meyers LA, Singer BH, Galvani AP. Projecting hospital utilization during the COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2020 Apr 3.
Remy Pasco, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 in Austin, Texas: Epidemiological Assessment of Grocery Shopping. April 17, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/n0ha-3c71
Spencer Woody, Mauricio Tec, Maytal Dahan, Kelly Gaither, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers, and James Scott. Projections for first-wave COVID-19 deaths across the U.S. using social-distancing measures derived from mobile phones. April 17, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/ry5m-r054
Du, Z., Xu, X., Wu, Y., Wang, L., Cowling, B. J., & Meyers, L. A. (2020). COVID-19 serial interval estimates based on confirmed cases in public reports from 86 Chinese cities. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, April 27, 2020, 2020.04.23.20075796. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.23.20075796

March 2020

Morrison, Maike, Lauren A. Castro, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. Conscientious vaccination exemptions in kindergarten to eighth-grade children across Texas schools from 2012 to 2018: A regression analysis. PLoS medicine 17, no. 3 (2020): e1003049.
Zhanwei Du, Xutong Wang, Remy Pasco, Michaela Petty, Spencer J. Fox, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Healthcare Demand Projections: 22 Texas Cities. First published: March 31, 2020; updated April 5, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/tmvs-g131
Wells CR, Sah P, Moghadas SM, Pandey A, Shoukat A, Wang Y, Wang Z, Meyers LA, Singer BH, Galvani AP. Impact of international travel and border control measures on the global spread of the novel 2019 coronavirus outbreak. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2020 Mar 31;117(13):7504-9.
Zhanwei Du, Ciara Nugent, Benjamin J Cowling, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Hundreds of severe pediatric COVID-19 infections in Wuhan prior to the lockdown. medRxiv. 2020 Mar 27.
Meyers LA. The secret life of coronavirus: Why we need such drastic social distancing measures. The Economist Intelligence Unit. 2020 Mar 20.
Remy Pasco, Xutong Wang, Michaela Petty, Zhanwei Du, Spencer J. Fox, Michael Pignone, Clay Johnston, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Healthcare Demand Projections: Austin, Texas. March 26, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/tmvs-g131
Caroline O. Buckee, et. al., with Lauren Ancel Meyers. Aggregated mobility data could help fight COVID-19. Science. March 23, 2020. DOI: 10.1126/science.abb8021
Zhanwei Du, Xiaoke Xu, Ye Wu, Lin Wang, Benjamin J. Cowling, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. Serial Interval of COVID-19 among Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases. Emerging Infectious Diseases. June, 2020. [Originally published March 19, 2020]. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2606.200357

Other Relevant Publications

Ebola vaccination in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Chad R. Wells, Abhishek Pandey, Alyssa S. Parpia, Meagan C. Fitzpatrick, Lauren A. Meyers, Burton H. Singer, Alison P. Galvani
PNAS, May 14, 2019.
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817329116
Optimization Based Decision-Support Tools for Influenza Pandemic Preparedness
Bismark Singh, Hsin-Chan Huang, David Morton, Alexander Gutfraind, Ozgur Araz, Gregory Johnson, Bruce Clements, Lauren Ancel Meyers.
Sandia National Laboratories, May 21, 2019.
Early Detection of Influenza outbreaks in the United States
Kai Liu, Ravi Srinivasan, Lauren Ancel Meyers
May 4, 2019 arXiv: 1903.01048
Local risk perception enhances epidemic control
Herrera-Diestra JL, Meyers LA
PLoS One, 2019 — Journal Article
Future epidemiological and economic impacts of universal influenza vaccines
Sah P, Alfaro-Murillo JA, Fitzpatrick MC, Neuzil KM, Meyers LA, Singer BH, Galvani AP
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2019 — Journal Article
Early prediction of antigenic transitions for influenza A/H3N2
Castro LA, Bedford T, Meyers LA
PLoS Comput. Biol., 2020 — Journal Article
Optimal multi-source forecasting of seasonal influenza
Ertem Z, Raymond D, Meyers LA
PLoS Comput. Biol., 2018 — Journal Article
Downgrading disease transmission risk estimates using terminal importations
Fox SJ, Bellan SE, Perkins TA, Johansson MA, Meyers LA
PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 2019 — Journal Article
DC grand rounds: modeling and public health decision-making
Fischer LS, Santibanez S, Hatchett RJ, Jernigan DB, Meyers LA, Thorpe PG, Meltzer MI
MMWR Surveill. Summ., 2016 — Journal Article
Seasonality in risk of pandemic influenza emergence
Fox SJ, Miller JC, Meyers LA
PLoS Comput. Biol., 2017 — Journal Article
Equalizing access to pandemic influenza vaccines through optimal allocation to public health distribution points
Huang HC, Singh B, Morton DP, Johnson GP, Clements B, Meyers LA
PLoS One, 2017 — Journal Article
Stockpiling ventilators for influenza pandemics
Huang HC, Araz OM, Morton DP, Johnson GP, Damien P, Clements B, Meyers LA
Emerg. Infect. Dis., 2017 — Journal Article
Assessing real-time Zika risk in the United States
Castro LA, Fox SJ, Chen X, Liu K, Bellan SE, Dimitrov NB, Galvani AP, Meyers LA
BMC Infect. Dis., 2017 — Journal Article
Disease surveillance on complex social networks
Herrera JL, Srinivasan R, Brownstein JS, Galvani AP, Meyers LA
PLoS Comput. Biol., 2016 — Journal Article
Impact of asymptomatic infection and acquired immunity on the spread and control of Ebola
Bellan SE, Pulliam JR, Dushoff J, Meyers LA
Lancet, 2014 — Journal Article
Data blindspots: high-tech disease surveillance misses the poor
Scarpino SV, Scott JG, Eggo R, Dimitrov NB, Meyers LA
Online J. Public Health Inform., 2016 — Journal Article
Respiratory virus transmission dynamics determine timing of asthma exacerbation peaks: Evidence from a population-level model
Eggo RM, Scott JG, Galvani AP, Meyers LA
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2016 — Journal Article
Enhancing disease surveillance with novel data streams: challenges and opportunities
Althouse BM, Scarpino SV, Meyers LA, Ayers JW, Bargsten M, Baumbach J, Brownstein JS, Castro L, Clapham H, Cummings DA
EPJ Data Science, 2015 — Journal Article
Evaluating Ebola vaccine trials: insights from simulation
Pulliam JR, Bellan SE, Gambhir M, Meyers LA, Dushoff J
Lancet Infect. Dis., 2015 — Journal Article
Epidemic wave dynamics attributable to urban community structure: A theoretical characterization of disease transmission in a large network
Hoen AG, Hladish TJ, Eggo RM, Lenczner M, Brownstein JS, Meyers LA
J. Med. Internet Res., 2015 — Journal Article
Harnessing case isolation and ring vaccination to control Ebola
Wells C, Yamin D, Ndeffo-Mbah ML, Wenzel N, Gaffney SG, Townsend JP, Meyers LA, Fallah M, Nyenswah TG, Altice FL
PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 2015 — Journal Article
Statistical power and validity of Ebola vaccine trials in Sierra Leone: a simulation study of trial design and analysis
Bellan SE, Pulliam JR, Pearson CA, Champredon D, Fox SJ, Skrip L, Galvani AP, Gambhir M, Lopman BA, Porco TC
Lancet Infect. Dis., 2015 — Journal Article
Efficacy and optimization of palivizumab injection regimens against respiratory syncytial virus infection
Gutfraind A, Galvani AP, Meyers LA
JAMA Pediatr., 2015 — Journal Article
Evaluating large-scale blood transfusion therapy for the current Ebola epidemic in Liberia
Gutfraind A, Meyers LA
J. Infect. Dis., 2015 — Journal Article
Optimizing distribution of pandemic influenza antiviral drugs
Singh B, Huang HC, Morton DP, Johnson GP, Gutfraind A, Galvani AP, Clements B, Meyers LA
Emerg. Infect. Dis., 2015 — Journal Article
Epidemiological and viral genomic sequence analysis of the 2014 Ebola outbreak reveals clustered transmission
Scarpino SV, Iamarino A, Wells C, Yamin D, Ndeffo-Mbah M, Wenzel NS, Fox SJ, Nyenswah T, Altice FL, Galvani AP
Clin. Infect. Dis., 2015 — Journal Article
Opinion: Mathematical models: A key tool for outbreak response
Lofgren ET, Halloran ME, Rivers CM, Drake JM, Porco TC, Lewis B, Yang W, Vespignani A, Shaman J, Eisenberg JN
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2014 — Journal Article
Probabilistic uncertainty analysis of epidemiological modeling to guide public health intervention policy
Gilbert JA, Meyers LA, Galvani AP, Townsend JP
Epidemics, 2014 — Journal Article
Optimal targeting of seasonal influenza vaccination toward younger ages is robust to parameter uncertainty
Mbah ML, Medlock J, Meyers LA, Galvani AP, Townsend JP
Vaccine, 2013 — Journal Article
Mathematical approaches to infectious disease prediction and control
Meyers LA, Dimitrov N
INFORMS, Tutorials in OPerations Research, 2010 — Journal Article
The impact of past epidemics on future disease dynamics
Bansal S, Meyers LA
J. Theor. Biol., 2012 — Journal Article
Simulating school closure policies for cost effective pandemic decision making
Araz OM, Damien P, Paltiel DA, Burke S, Van De Geijn B, Galvani A, Meyers LA
BMC Public Health, 2012 — Journal Article
Early real-time estimation of the basic reproduction number of emerging infectious diseases
Davoudi B, Miller JC, Meza R, Meyers LA, Earn DJ, Pourbohloul B
Physical Review X, 2012 — Journal Article
Geographic prioritization of distributing pandemic influenza vaccines
Araz OM, Galvani A, Meyers LA
Health Care Manag. Sci., 2012 — Journal Article
Optimizing provider recruitment for influenza surveillance networks
Scarpino SV, Dimitrov NB, Meyers LA
PLoS Comput. Biol., 2012 — Journal Article
EpiFire: An open source C++ library and application for contact network epidemiology
Hladish T, Melamud E, Barrera LA, Galvani A, Meyers LA
BMC Bioinformatics, 2012 — Journal Article
The impact of imitation on vaccination behavior in social contact networks
Mbah ML, Liu J, Bauch CT, Tekel YI, Medlock J, Meyers LA, Galvani AP
PLoS Comput. Biol., 2012 — Journal Article
Optimal H1N1 vaccination strategies based on self-interest versus group interest
Shim E, Meyers LA, Galvani AP
BMC Public Health, 2011 — Journal Article
Network perspectives on infectious disease dynamics
Meyers LA, Kerr B, Koelle K
Interdiscip. Perspect. Infect. Dis., 2011 — Journal Article
Vaccination against 2009 pandemic H1N1 in a population dynamical model of Vancouver, Canada: timing is everything
Conway JM, Tuite AR, Fisman DN, Hupert N, Meza R, Davoudi B, English K, Van den Driessche P, Brauer F, Ma J
BMC Public Health, 2011 — Journal Article
Who got vaccinated against H1N1 pandemic influenza?–A longitudinal study in four US cities
Li M, Chapman GB, Ibuka Y, Meyers LA, Galvani A
Psychol. Health, 2012 — Journal Article
Impact of imitation processes on the effectiveness of ring vaccination
Wells CR, Tchuenche JM, Meyers LA, Galvani AP, Bauch CT
Bull. Math. Biol., 2011 — Journal Article
Mathematical approaches to infectious disease prediction and control
Dimitrov NB, Meyers LA
Risk and optimization in an uncertain world, 2010 — Book Chapter
Optimizing tactics for use of the us antiviral strategic national stockpile for pandemic influenza
Dimitrov NB, Goll S, Hupert N, Pourbohloul B, Meyers LA
PLoS One, 2011 — Journal Article
Effects of heterogeneous and clustered contact patterns on infectious disease dynamics
Volz EM, Miller JC, Galvani A, Meyers LA
PLoS Comput. Biol., 2011 — Journal Article
Erratic flu vaccination emerges from short-sighted behavior in contact networks
Cornforth DM, Reluga TC, Shim E, Bauch CT, Galvani AP, Meyers LA
PLoS Comput. Biol., 2011 — Journal Article
The dynamics of risk perceptions and precautionary behavior in response to 2009 (H1N1) pandemic influenza
Ibuka Y, Chapman GB, Meyers LA, Li M, Galvani AP
BMC Infect. Dis., 2010 — Journal Article
The dynamic nature of contact networks in infectious disease epidemiology
Bansal S, Read J, Pourbohloul B, Meyers LA
J. Biol. Dyn., 2010 — Journal Article
Optimizing allocation for a delayed influenza vaccination campaign
Medlock J, Meyers LA
PLoS Curr., 2009 — Journal Article
Exploring biological network structure with clustered random networks
Bansal S, Khandelwal S, Meyers L
BMC Bioinformatics, 2009 — Journal Article
The shifting demographic landscape of pandemic influenza
Bansal S, Pourbohloul B, Hupert N, Grenfell B, Meyers LA
PLoS One, 2010 — Journal Article
Epidemic thresholds in dynamic contact networks
Volz E, Meyers LA
J. R. Soc. Interface, 2009 — Journal Article
Network frailty and the geometry of herd immunity
Ferrari MJ, Bansal S, Meyers LA, Bjørnstad ON
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2006 — Journal Article
A comparative analysis of influenza vaccination programs
Bansal S, Pourbohloul B, Meyers LA
PLoS Med., 2006 — Journal Article
Susceptible–infected–recovered epidemics in dynamic contact networks
Volz E, Meyers LA
Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2007 — Journal Article
Modeling control strategies of respiratory pathogens
Pourbohloul B, Meyers LA, Skowronski DM, Krajden M, Patrick DM, Brunham RC
Emerg. Infect. Dis., 2005 — Journal Article
Initial human transmission dynamics of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus in North America
Pourbohloul B, Ahued A, Davoudi B, Meza R, Meyers LA, Skowronski DM, Villaseñor I, Galván F, Cravioto P, Earn DJ
Influenza Other Respi. Viruses, 2009 — Journal Article
Contact network epidemiology: Bond percolation applied to infectious disease prediction and control
Meyers L
Bull. Am. Math. Soc., 2007 — Journal Article
When individual behaviour matters: homogeneous and network models in epidemiology
Bansal S, Grenfell BT, Meyers LA
J. R. Soc. Interface, 2007 — Journal Article
Applying network theory to epidemics: control measures for Mycoplasma pneumoniae outbreaks
Meyers LA, Newman MEJ, Martin M, Schrag S
Emerg. Infect. Dis., 2003 — Journal Article
Predicting epidemics on directed contact networks
Meyers LA, Newman MEJ, Pourbohloul B
J. Theor. Biol., 2006 — Journal Article
Network theory and SARS: predicting outbreak diversity
Meyers LA, Pourbohloul B, Newman ME, Skowronski DM, Brunham RC
J. Theor. Biol., 2005 — Journal Article

The UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium is made possible, in part, by the generous support of Tito’s Handmade Vodka.