COVID-19 Reports & Publications

October 2020

• Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Mauricio Tec, Remy Pasco, Zhanwei Du, Spencer Woody, Maytal Dahan, Kelly Gaither, Kelly Pierce, James Scott, Gordon Wells, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Texas Trauma Service Area (TSA) COVID-19 transmission estimates and healthcare projections - Updated Oct. 20, 2020. Oct. 20, 2020.

• Wang X, Pasco RF, Du Z, Petty M, Fox SJ, Galvani AP, et al. Impact of social distancing measures on coronavirus disease healthcare demand, central Texas, USA. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Oct. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2610.201702

September 2020

• Cameron Matsui, Remy Pasco, Kaitlyn Johnson, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Transmission Risks for Reopening The University of Texas at Austin. September 25, 2020.

• Xutong Wang, Zhanwei Du, George Huang, Remy F. Pasco, Spencer J. Fox, Alison P. Galvani, Michael Pignone, S. Claiborne Johnston, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. Effects of cocooning on coronavirus disease rates after relaxing social distancing. Emerg Infect Dis. September 21, 2020. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2612.201930

August 2020

• Cameron Matsui, Kaitlyn Johnson, Remy Pasco, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Campus Introduction and Gathering Risks for Reopening the University of Texas at Austin. August 20, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/aa7a-0c58

• Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Mauricio Tec, Remy Pasco, Maureen Johnson, Jenny Lu, Zhanwei Du, Spencer Woody, Jennifer Starling, Maytal Dahan, Kelly Gaither, Kelly Pierce, James Scott, Gordon Wells, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Texas Trauma Service Area (TSA) COVID-19 transmission estimates and healthcare projections: August 19, 2020. August 19, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/tj6d-dm41

• Zhanwei Du, Emily Javan, Ciara Nugent, Benjamin J. Cowling, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Using the COVID-19 to influenza ratio to estimate early pandemic spread in Wuhan, China and Seattle, US. August 12, 2020.

• Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Mauricio Tec, Remy Pasco, MaureenJohnson, Jenny Lu, Zhanwei Du, Spencer Woody, Jennifer Starling, Maytal Dahan, Kelly Gaither, Kelly Pierce, James Scott, Gordon Wells, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Texas Trauma Service Area (TSA) COVID-19 transmission estimates and healthcare projections. Presented on August 1, 2020.

July 2020

• Spencer J. Fox, Michael Lachmann, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Risks of COVID-19 Introductions as Schools Reopen. Presented to The New York Times July 31, 2020.

• Daniel Duque, David P. Morton, Bismark Singh, Zhanwei Du, Remy Pasco, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. Timing social distancing to avert unmanageable COVID-19 hospital surges. July 29, 2020.

• Spencer J. Fox, Michael Lachmann, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Campus Introduction Risks for School Reopenings. Presented on July 22, 2020.

• Mauricio Tec, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Remy Pasco, Spencer Woody, Jennifer Starling, Maytal Dahan, Kelly Gaither, James Scott, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Austin COVID-19 transmission estimates and healthcare projections. July 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/jaa9-ff48

June 2020

• Spencer J Fox, Remy Pasco, Mauricio Tec, Zhanwei Du, Michael Lachmann, James Scott, Lauren Ancel Meyers. The impact of asymptomatic COVID-19 infections on future pandemic waves. medRxiv. 2020 June 22.

• Wang X, Pasco RF, Du Z, Petty M, Fox SJ, Galvani AP, et al. Impact of social distancing measures on coronavirus disease healthcare demand, central Texas, USA. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Oct. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2610.201702

• Mauricio Tec, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Remy Pasco, Spencer Woody, Jennifer Starling, Maytal Dahan, Kelly Gaither, James Scott, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Austin COVID-19 transmission estimates and healthcare projections. July 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/jaa9-ff48

• Spencer J Fox, Remy Pasco, Mauricio Tec, Zhanwei Du, Michael Lachmann, James Scott, Lauren Ancel Meyers. The impact of asymptomatic COVID-19 infections on future pandemic waves. medRxiv. 2020 June 22.

• Haoxiang Yang, Daniel Duque, Özge Sürer, David P. Morton, Remy Pasco, Kelly Pierce, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Staged Strategy to Avoid Hospital Surge and Preventable Mortality, while Reducing the Economic Burden of Social Distancing Measures. Presented on June 15, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/hmf9-cx87

• Du Z, Xu X, Wang L, Fox SJ, Cowling BJ, Galvani AP, et al. Effects of proactive social distancing on COVID-19 outbreaks in 58 cities, China. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 June 11. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2609.201932

• Lauren Ancel Meyers, Zhanwei Du, Robert M. Krug. Hoping for a COVID-19 antiviral that limits virus spread. Nature Microbiology. June 2, 2020.

• Zhanwei Du, Ciara Nugent, Alison P. Galvani, Robert M. Krug & Lauren Ancel Meyers. Modeling mitigation of influenza epidemics by baloxavir. Nature Communications. June 2, 2020.

May 2020

• Daniel Duque, Mauricio Tec, David P. Morton, James Scott, Haoxiang Yang, Remy Pasco, Kelly Pierce, Spencer J. Fox, Michael Pignone, Parker Hudson, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. Staged Strategy to Avoid Hospital Surge and Preventable Mortality, while Reducing the Economic Burden of Social Distancing Measures. Presented to the city of Austin and Travis County on May 18, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/xw18-9m27

• Daniel Duque, David Paul Morton, Bismark Singh, Zhanwei Du, Remy Pasco, Lauren Ancel Meyers, COVID-19: How to Relax Social Distancing If You Must. medRxiv. 2020 May 05.

April 2020

• Kelly Pierce, Ethan Ho, Xutong Wang, Remy Pasco, Zhanwei Du, Spencer Fox, Greg Zynda, Jawon Song, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Healthcare Demand Projections: Beaumont-Port Arthur MSA, Texas. April 29, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/j8dw-ev41

• Kelly Pierce, Ethan Ho, Xutong Wang, Remy Pasco, Zhanwei Du, Spencer Fox, Greg Zynda, Jawon Song, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Healthcare Demand Projections: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land MSA, Texas. April 28, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/z822-gr62

• Daniel Duque, David P. Morton, Bismark Singh, Zhanwei Du, Remy Pasco, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 in Austin, Texas: Averting healthcare surges while relaxing social distancing. April 28, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/dvm2-w474

• Du, Z., L. Wang, S. Cauchemez, X. Xu, X. Wang, B.J. Cowling, L.A. Meyers (2020). Risk for transportation of coronavirus disease from Wuhan to other cities in China. Emerging Infectious Diseases. DOI: 10.3201/eid2605.200146.

• Xutong Wang, Zhanwei Du, George Huang, Spencer Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 in Austin, Texas: Relaxing Social Distancing Measures. April 23, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/cytm-ev55

• Xutong Wang, Remy Pasco, Kelly Pierce, Zhanwei Du, Spencer Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Healthcare Demand Projections: Austin, Texas: April 20, 2020. Posted online April 21, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/503k-c813

• Xutong Wang, Remy F Pasco, Zhanwei Du, Michaela Petty, Spencer J Fox, Alison P Galvani, Michael Pignone, S. Claiborne Johnston, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Impact of Social Distancing Measures on COVID-19 Healthcare Demand in Central Texas. medRxiv. 2020 Apr 22.

• Emily Javan, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. The unseen and pervasive threat of COVID-19 throughout the US. medRxiv. 2020 Apr 18.

• Moghadas SM, Shoukat A, Fitzpatrick MC, Wells CR, Sah P, Pandey A, Sachs JD, Wang Z, Meyers LA, Singer BH, Galvani AP. Projecting hospital utilization during the COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2020 Apr 3.

• Remy Pasco, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 in Austin, Texas: Epidemiological Assessment of Grocery Shopping. April 17, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/n0ha-3c71

• Spencer Woody, Mauricio Tec, Maytal Dahan, Kelly Gaither, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers, and James Scott. Projections for first-wave COVID-19 deaths across the U.S. using social-distancing measures derived from mobile phones. April 17, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/ry5m-r054

March 2020

• Zhanwei Du, Xutong Wang, Remy Pasco, Michaela Petty, Spencer J. Fox, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Healthcare Demand Projections: 22 Texas Cities. First published: March 31, 2020; updated April 5, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/tmvs-g131

• Wells CR, Sah P, Moghadas SM, Pandey A, Shoukat A, Wang Y, Wang Z, Meyers LA, Singer BH, Galvani AP. Impact of international travel and border control measures on the global spread of the novel 2019 coronavirus outbreak. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2020 Mar 31;117(13):7504-9.

• Zhanwei Du, Ciara Nugent, Benjamin J Cowling, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Hundreds of severe pediatric COVID-19 infections in Wuhan prior to the lockdown. medRxiv. 2020 Mar 27.

• Meyers LA. The secret life of coronavirus: Why we need such drastic social distancing measures. The Economist Intelligence Unit. 2020 Mar 20.

• Remy Pasco, Xutong Wang, Michaela Petty, Zhanwei Du, Spencer J. Fox, Michael Pignone, Clay Johnston, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Healthcare Demand Projections: Austin, Texas. March 26, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/tmvs-g131
   
• Caroline O. Buckee, et. al., with Lauren Ancel Meyers. Aggregated mobility data could help fight COVID-19. Science. March 23, 2020. DOI: 10.1126/science.abb8021
   
• Zhanwei Du, Xiaoke Xu, Ye Wu, Lin Wang, Benjamin J. Cowling, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. Serial Interval of COVID-19 among Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases. Emerging Infectious Diseases. June, 2020. [Originally published March 19, 2020]. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2606.200357

Other Relevant Publications

• Local risk perception enhances epidemic control
  Herrera-Diestra JL, Meyers LA
  PLoS One, 2019 — Journal Article
• Future epidemiological and economic impacts of universal influenza vaccines
  Sah P, Alfaro-Murillo JA, Fitzpatrick MC, Neuzil KM, Meyers LA, Singer BH, Galvani AP
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2019 — Journal Article
• Early prediction of antigenic transitions for influenza A/H3N2
  Castro LA, Bedford T, Meyers LA
  PLoS Comput. Biol., 2020 — Journal Article
• Optimal multi-source forecasting of seasonal influenza
  Ertem Z, Raymond D, Meyers LA
  PLoS Comput. Biol., 2018 — Journal Article
• Downgrading disease transmission risk estimates using terminal importations
  Fox SJ, Bellan SE, Perkins TA, Johansson MA, Meyers LA
  PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 2019 — Journal Article
• DC grand rounds: modeling and public health decision-making
  Fischer LS, Santibanez S, Hatchett RJ, Jernigan DB, Meyers LA, Thorpe PG, Meltzer MI
  MMWR Surveill. Summ., 2016 — Journal Article
• Seasonality in risk of pandemic influenza emergence
  Fox SJ, Miller JC, Meyers LA
  PLoS Comput. Biol., 2017 — Journal Article
• Equalizing access to pandemic influenza vaccines through optimal allocation to public health distribution points
  Huang HC, Singh B, Morton DP, Johnson GP, Clements B, Meyers LA
  PLoS One, 2017 — Journal Article
• Stockpiling ventilators for influenza pandemics
  Huang HC, Araz OM, Morton DP, Johnson GP, Damien P, Clements B, Meyers LA
  Emerg. Infect. Dis., 2017 — Journal Article
• Assessing real-time Zika risk in the United States
  Castro LA, Fox SJ, Chen X, Liu K, Bellan SE, Dimitrov NB, Galvani AP, Meyers LA
  BMC Infect. Dis., 2017 — Journal Article
• Disease surveillance on complex social networks
  Herrera JL, Srinivasan R, Brownstein JS, Galvani AP, Meyers LA
  PLoS Comput. Biol., 2016 — Journal Article
• Impact of asymptomatic infection and acquired immunity on the spread and control of Ebola
  Bellan SE, Pulliam JR, Dushoff J, Meyers LA
  Lancet, 2014 — Journal Article
• Data blindspots: high-tech disease surveillance misses the poor
  Scarpino SV, Scott JG, Eggo R, Dimitrov NB, Meyers LA
  Online J. Public Health Inform., 2016 — Journal Article
• Respiratory virus transmission dynamics determine timing of asthma exacerbation peaks: Evidence from a population-level model
  Eggo RM, Scott JG, Galvani AP, Meyers LA
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2016 — Journal Article
• Enhancing disease surveillance with novel data streams: challenges and opportunities
  Althouse BM, Scarpino SV, Meyers LA, Ayers JW, Bargsten M, Baumbach J, Brownstein JS, Castro L, Clapham H, Cummings DA
  EPJ Data Science, 2015 — Journal Article
• Evaluating Ebola vaccine trials: insights from simulation
  Pulliam JR, Bellan SE, Gambhir M, Meyers LA, Dushoff J
  Lancet Infect. Dis., 2015 — Journal Article
• Epidemic wave dynamics attributable to urban community structure: A theoretical characterization of disease transmission in a large network
  Hoen AG, Hladish TJ, Eggo RM, Lenczner M, Brownstein JS, Meyers LA
  J. Med. Internet Res., 2015 — Journal Article
• Harnessing case isolation and ring vaccination to control Ebola
  Wells C, Yamin D, Ndeffo-Mbah ML, Wenzel N, Gaffney SG, Townsend JP, Meyers LA, Fallah M, Nyenswah TG, Altice FL
  PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 2015 — Journal Article
• Statistical power and validity of Ebola vaccine trials in Sierra Leone: a simulation study of trial design and analysis
  Bellan SE, Pulliam JR, Pearson CA, Champredon D, Fox SJ, Skrip L, Galvani AP, Gambhir M, Lopman BA, Porco TC
  Lancet Infect. Dis., 2015 — Journal Article
• Efficacy and optimization of palivizumab injection regimens against respiratory syncytial virus infection
  Gutfraind A, Galvani AP, Meyers LA
  JAMA Pediatr., 2015 — Journal Article
• Evaluating large-scale blood transfusion therapy for the current Ebola epidemic in Liberia
  Gutfraind A, Meyers LA
  J. Infect. Dis., 2015 — Journal Article
• Optimizing distribution of pandemic influenza antiviral drugs
  Singh B, Huang HC, Morton DP, Johnson GP, Gutfraind A, Galvani AP, Clements B, Meyers LA
  Emerg. Infect. Dis., 2015 — Journal Article
• Epidemiological and viral genomic sequence analysis of the 2014 Ebola outbreak reveals clustered transmission
  Scarpino SV, Iamarino A, Wells C, Yamin D, Ndeffo-Mbah M, Wenzel NS, Fox SJ, Nyenswah T, Altice FL, Galvani AP
  Clin. Infect. Dis., 2015 — Journal Article
• Opinion: Mathematical models: A key tool for outbreak response
  Lofgren ET, Halloran ME, Rivers CM, Drake JM, Porco TC, Lewis B, Yang W, Vespignani A, Shaman J, Eisenberg JN
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2014 — Journal Article
• Probabilistic uncertainty analysis of epidemiological modeling to guide public health intervention policy
  Gilbert JA, Meyers LA, Galvani AP, Townsend JP
  Epidemics, 2014 — Journal Article
• Optimal targeting of seasonal influenza vaccination toward younger ages is robust to parameter uncertainty
  Mbah ML, Medlock J, Meyers LA, Galvani AP, Townsend JP
  Vaccine, 2013 — Journal Article
• Mathematical approaches to infectious disease prediction and control
  Meyers LA, Dimitrov N
  INFORMS, Tutorials in OPerations Research, 2010 — Journal Article
• The impact of past epidemics on future disease dynamics
  Bansal S, Meyers LA
  J. Theor. Biol., 2012 — Journal Article
• Simulating school closure policies for cost effective pandemic decision making
  Araz OM, Damien P, Paltiel DA, Burke S, Van De Geijn B, Galvani A, Meyers LA
  BMC Public Health, 2012 — Journal Article
• Early real-time estimation of the basic reproduction number of emerging infectious diseases
  Davoudi B, Miller JC, Meza R, Meyers LA, Earn DJ, Pourbohloul B
  Physical Review X, 2012 — Journal Article
• Geographic prioritization of distributing pandemic influenza vaccines
  Araz OM, Galvani A, Meyers LA
  Health Care Manag. Sci., 2012 — Journal Article
• Optimizing provider recruitment for influenza surveillance networks
  Scarpino SV, Dimitrov NB, Meyers LA
  PLoS Comput. Biol., 2012 — Journal Article
• EpiFire: An open source C++ library and application for contact network epidemiology
  Hladish T, Melamud E, Barrera LA, Galvani A, Meyers LA
  BMC Bioinformatics, 2012 — Journal Article
• The impact of imitation on vaccination behavior in social contact networks
  Mbah ML, Liu J, Bauch CT, Tekel YI, Medlock J, Meyers LA, Galvani AP
  PLoS Comput. Biol., 2012 — Journal Article
• Optimal H1N1 vaccination strategies based on self-interest versus group interest
  Shim E, Meyers LA, Galvani AP
  BMC Public Health, 2011 — Journal Article
• Network perspectives on infectious disease dynamics
  Meyers LA, Kerr B, Koelle K
  Interdiscip. Perspect. Infect. Dis., 2011 — Journal Article
• Vaccination against 2009 pandemic H1N1 in a population dynamical model of Vancouver, Canada: timing is everything
  Conway JM, Tuite AR, Fisman DN, Hupert N, Meza R, Davoudi B, English K, Van den Driessche P, Brauer F, Ma J
  BMC Public Health, 2011 — Journal Article
• Who got vaccinated against H1N1 pandemic influenza?–A longitudinal study in four US cities
  Li M, Chapman GB, Ibuka Y, Meyers LA, Galvani A
  Psychol. Health, 2012 — Journal Article
• Impact of imitation processes on the effectiveness of ring vaccination
  Wells CR, Tchuenche JM, Meyers LA, Galvani AP, Bauch CT
  Bull. Math. Biol., 2011 — Journal Article
• Mathematical approaches to infectious disease prediction and control
  Dimitrov NB, Meyers LA
  Risk and optimization in an uncertain world, 2010 — Book Chapter
• Optimizing tactics for use of the us antiviral strategic national stockpile for pandemic influenza
  Dimitrov NB, Goll S, Hupert N, Pourbohloul B, Meyers LA
  PLoS One, 2011 — Journal Article
• Effects of heterogeneous and clustered contact patterns on infectious disease dynamics
  Volz EM, Miller JC, Galvani A, Meyers LA
  PLoS Comput. Biol., 2011 — Journal Article
• Erratic flu vaccination emerges from short-sighted behavior in contact networks
  Cornforth DM, Reluga TC, Shim E, Bauch CT, Galvani AP, Meyers LA
  PLoS Comput. Biol., 2011 — Journal Article
• The dynamics of risk perceptions and precautionary behavior in response to 2009 (H1N1) pandemic influenza
  Ibuka Y, Chapman GB, Meyers LA, Li M, Galvani AP
  BMC Infect. Dis., 2010 — Journal Article
• The dynamic nature of contact networks in infectious disease epidemiology
  Bansal S, Read J, Pourbohloul B, Meyers LA
  J. Biol. Dyn., 2010 — Journal Article
• Optimizing allocation for a delayed influenza vaccination campaign
  Medlock J, Meyers LA
  PLoS Curr., 2009 — Journal Article
• Exploring biological network structure with clustered random networks
  Bansal S, Khandelwal S, Meyers L
  BMC Bioinformatics, 2009 — Journal Article
• The shifting demographic landscape of pandemic influenza
  Bansal S, Pourbohloul B, Hupert N, Grenfell B, Meyers LA
  PLoS One, 2010 — Journal Article
• Epidemic thresholds in dynamic contact networks
  Volz E, Meyers LA
  J. R. Soc. Interface, 2009 — Journal Article
• Network frailty and the geometry of herd immunity
  Ferrari MJ, Bansal S, Meyers LA, Bjørnstad ON
  Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2006 — Journal Article
• A comparative analysis of influenza vaccination programs
  Bansal S, Pourbohloul B, Meyers LA
  PLoS Med., 2006 — Journal Article
• Susceptible–infected–recovered epidemics in dynamic contact networks
  Volz E, Meyers LA
  Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2007 — Journal Article
• Modeling control strategies of respiratory pathogens
  Pourbohloul B, Meyers LA, Skowronski DM, Krajden M, Patrick DM, Brunham RC
  Emerg. Infect. Dis., 2005 — Journal Article
• Initial human transmission dynamics of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus in North America
  Pourbohloul B, Ahued A, Davoudi B, Meza R, Meyers LA, Skowronski DM, Villaseñor I, Galván F, Cravioto P, Earn DJ
  Influenza Other Respi. Viruses, 2009 — Journal Article
• Contact network epidemiology: Bond percolation applied to infectious disease prediction and control
  Meyers L
  Bull. Am. Math. Soc., 2007 — Journal Article
• When individual behaviour matters: homogeneous and network models in epidemiology
  Bansal S, Grenfell BT, Meyers LA
  J. R. Soc. Interface, 2007 — Journal Article
• Applying network theory to epidemics: control measures for Mycoplasma pneumoniae outbreaks
  Meyers LA, Newman MEJ, Martin M, Schrag S
  Emerg. Infect. Dis., 2003 — Journal Article
• Predicting epidemics on directed contact networks
  Meyers LA, Newman MEJ, Pourbohloul B
  J. Theor. Biol., 2006 — Journal Article
• Network theory and SARS: predicting outbreak diversity
  Meyers LA, Pourbohloul B, Newman ME, Skowronski DM, Brunham RC
  J. Theor. Biol., 2005 — Journal Article

The UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium is made possible, in part, by the generous support of Tito’s Handmade Vodka.