College of Natural Sciences

 

The University of Texas COVID-19 Modeling Consortium

COVID-19 Mortality Projections for US States and Metropolitan Areas

These graphs show both the reported and projected number of COVID-19 deaths per day across the US and for individual states and metropolitan areas. We use local data from mobile-phone GPS traces to quantify the changing impact of social-distancing measures on “flattening the curve.”
For more information, please visit our model FAQ. Code syntax and daily updates of our forecasts are available on our UT-COVID GitHub repository.

IMPORTANT NOTE: On 07 May 2020 the New York Times’ made substantial changes in how it reports COVID-19 deaths, with a large effect on data New York state in particular.  We are working our way through the implications of these changes for our model.  In the meantime, we are using data from Johns Hopkins University, which includes both probable and confirmed deaths, to inform our projections.

Key model assumptions: (1) The observed and projected numbers reflect confirmed COVID-19 deaths only. (2) The model estimates the extent of social distancing using geolocation data from mobile phones and assumes that the extent of social distancing does not change during the period of forecasting. (3) The model is designed to predict deaths resulting from only a single wave of COVID-19 transmission and cannot predict epidemiological dynamics resulting from a possible second wave.

The peak is defined as the day on which our model’s prediction for the average daily death rate stops increasing and begins to decrease.

For detailed technical information please view the Report: UT COVID-19 Mortality Forecasting Model or the pre-print version on MedRxiv.

Share this page

This page is best viewed on a larger screen. x