COVID-19 Reports & Publications

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February 2023

• Zhanwei Du, University of Hong Kong and Lauren Ancel Meyers, University of Texas at Austin. Estimated COVID-19 Mortality in China, December 16, 2022 - January 19, 2023

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August 2022

• Kaiming Bi, Anass Bouchnita, Oluwaseun F. Egbelowo, Spencer Fox, Michael Lachmann, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Scenario projections for the spread of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.4 and BA.5 subvariants in the US and Texas . August 4, 2022. DOI: 10.15781/zvv0-rh65
• Xutong Wang, Zhanwei Du, Emily James, Spencer J Fox, Michael Lachmann, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Darlene Bhavnani. The effectiveness of COVID-19 testing and contact tracing in a US city, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, August 15, 2022, 119 (34) e2200652119, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2200652119

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May 2022

• Spencer J. Fox, Kaitlyn Johnson, Briana Owirodu, Jennifer Johnson- Leung, Marcel Elizondo, Desmar Walkes, Lauren Ancel Meyers, COVID-19 risk assessment for public events. May 9, 2022. DOI: doi.org/10.15781/w3hx-4j68

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April 2022

• Du, Z., Wang, L., Bai, Y., Wang, X., Pandey, A., Fitzpatrick, M. C., ... & Meyers, L. A. (2022). Cost-effective proactive testing strategies during COVID-19 mass vaccination: A modelling study. The Lancet Regional Health-Americas, 8, 100182.

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March 2022

• Du, Z., Fox, S. J., Ingle, T., Pignone, M. P., & Meyers, L. A. (2022). Projecting the Combined Health Care Burden of Seasonal Influenza and COVID-19 in the 2020–2021 Season. MDM policy & practice, 7(1), 23814683221084631.

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February 2022

• Audirac, M., Tec, M., Garcia-Tejeda, E., & Fox, S. (2022). Estimating Importation Risk of Covid-19 in Hurricane Evacuations: A Prediction Framework Applied to Hurricane Laura in Texas. arXiv preprint arXiv:2203.00136.

• Spencer J. Fox, Michael Lachmann, Mauricio Tec, Remy Pasco, Spencer Woody, Zhanwei Du, Xutong Wang, Tanvi A. Ingle, Emily Javan, Maytal Dahan, Kelly Gaither, Mark E. Escott, Stephen I. Adler, S. Claiborne Johnston, James G. Scott, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Real-time pandemic surveillance using hospital admissions and mobility data. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, February 15, 2022, 119 (7) e2111870119. DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2111870119

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January 2022

• Anass Bouchnita, Spencer J. Fox, Michael Lachmann, Jose L. Herrera-Diestra, Graham Gibson, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Omicron scenario projections for the Austin-Round Rock MSA , January 25, 2022. DOI: doi.org/10.15781/wtby-xg72

• Anass Bouchnita, Spencer J. Fox, Michael Lachmann, Jose L. Herrera-Diestra, Graham Gibson, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Scenario Projections: The Emergence of Omicron in the US - January 2022 , January 6, 2022. DOI: doi.org/10.15781/kwym-d720

• Bi, K., Herrera-Diestra, J. L., Bai, Y., Du, Z., Wang, L., Gibson, G., ... & Meyers, L. A. (2022). The risk of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant emergence in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). medRxiv.

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December 2021

• Anass Bouchnita, Spencer J. Fox, Michael Lachmann, Jose L. Herrera-Diestra, Graham Gibson, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Scenario Projections: The Emergence of Omicron in the US. December 16, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15781/5kxe-ms96

• Spencer Woody, Maytal Dahan, Spencer J. Fox, Kelly Gaither, Michael Lachmann, Lauren Ancel Meyers, James G. Scott, Mauricio Tec, et.al. Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US. medRxiv December 10, 2021. doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.02.03.21250974

• Yuan Bai, Zhanwei Du, Mingda Xu, Lin Wang, Peng Wu, Eric H. Y. Lau, Benjamin J.Cowling, Lauren Ancel Meyers, International risk of SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variant importations originating in South Africa, medRxiv 2021.12.07.21267410, December 7, 2021, DOI: doi.org/10.1101/2021.12.07.21267410

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November 2021

• Nazlican Arslan, David P. Morton, Janet Pichette, Desmar Walkes, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. Projections for Austin’s COVID-19 Staged Alert System, Incorporating Reported Cases as Additional Indicator . November 17, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15781/fs56-5p42

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October 2021

• Nazlıcan Arslan, David P. Morton, Desmar Walkes, and Lauren Ancel Meyers.  Projections for Variants of Concern under Austin’s COVID-19 Staged-Alert System.  October 20, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15781/f8gz-z961

• Perofsky A. C., Meyers L. A., Abondano L. A., Fiore A. D., Lewis R. J. Social groups constrain the spatiotemporal dynamics of wild sifaka gut microbiomes. Wiley Online Library, October 11, 2021. https://doi.org/10.1111/mec.16193

• Ding Y., Agrawal S. K., Cao J., Meyers L.A., Hasenbein J.J. (2021). Surveillance testing for rapid detection of outbreaks in facilities. arXiv preprint arXiv:2110.00170, October 1, 2021

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September 2021

• Michelle Audirac, Mauricio Tec, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Spencer J. Fox, Cory Zigler.
  How Timing of Stay-at-home Orders and Mobility Reductions Impacted First-Wave COVID-19 Deaths in US Counties, September 26, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.24.20238055

• Remy Pasco, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Mitigating COVID-19 in schools with face masks and proactive testing . September 14, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15781/x3x7-rp26

• Moghadas S.M., Sah P., Shoukat A., Meyers L.A., Population Immunity Against COVID-19 in the United States, Annals of Internal Medicine, September 14, 2021, https://doi.org/10.7326/M21-2721

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August 2021

• Kaitlyn E. Johnson, Remy Pasco, Spencer Woody, Michael Lachmann, Darlene Bhavnani, Jessica Klima, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 projections for the reopening of the University of Texas at Austin in fall 2021 . August 11, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15781/5pta-kx30

• Spencer J. Fox, Michael Lachmann, Anass Bouchnita, Spencer Woody, Remy Pasco, Maureen Johnson-Leon, Tanvi Ingle, Kaitlyn Johnson, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 scenario projections for Austin, Texas - August 2021 . August 06, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15781/f02n-vn59

• Capobianco R., Kompella V., Ault J., Sharon G., Jong S., Fox S., Meyers L.A., Wurman P.,  Stone P. Agent-based markov modeling for improved COVID-19 mitigation policies Journal of Artificial Intelligence Research 71, 953-992, August 18, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1613/jair.1.12632

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July 2021

• Michael Lachmann, Anass Bouchnita, Spencer Woody, Remy Pasco, Maureen Johnson-Leon, Kaitlyn Johnson, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 scenario projections for Austin, Texas. July 19, 2021. DOI: https://doi.org/10.15781/gc9z-9h56

• Hayden F.G., Asher J., Cowling B.J., et al. Reducing influenza virus transmission: the value of antiviral treatment. Clinical Infectious Diseases: An Official Publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. 2021 Jul. DOI: 10.1093/cid/ciab625

• Frederick G Hayden, Jason Asher, Benjamin J Cowling, Aeron C Hurt, Hideyuki Ikematsu, Klaus Kuhlbusch, Annabelle Lemenuel-Diot, Zhanwei Du, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Pedro A Piedra, Takahiro Takazono, Hui-Ling Yen, Arnold S Monto, Reducing Influenza Virus Transmission: The Potential Value of Antiviral Treatment, Clinical Infectious Diseases, 2021;, ciab625, https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciab625

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June 2021

• Yang H, Sürer O, Duque D, Morton D, Singh B, Fox SJ, Pasco R, Pierce K, Rathouz P, Valencia V, Du Z, Pignone M, Escott M, Adler SI, Johnston SC, Meyers LA, Design of COVID-19 staged alert systems to ensure healthcare capacity with minimal closures, Nature Communications, published June 18, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-23989-x

• Zhanwei Du, Lin Wang, Songwei Shan, Dickson Lam, Tim K. Tsang, Jingyi Xiao, Huizhi, Gao, Bingyi Yang, Sheikh Taslim Ali, Sen Pei, Isaac Chun-Hai Fung, Eric H. Y. Lau, Qiuyan Liao, Peng Wu, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Gabriel M. Leung, Benjamin J. Cowling. Pandemic fatigue impedes mitigation of COVID-19 in Hong Kong. Research Square, June 10, 2021. https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3.rs-591241/v1

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May 2021

• Ingle TA, Morrison M, Wang X, Mercer T, Karman V, Fox SJ, Meyers LA, Forecasting Resources Needed to Protect People Experiencing Homelessness During COVID-19 doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0251153

• Wang X, Du Z, Johnson K, Pasco R, Fox SJ, Lachmann M, McLellan JS, Meyers LA,
  Effects of COVID-19 Vaccination Timing and Risk Prioritization on Mortality Rates, Emerging Infectious Disease Volume 27, Number 7—July 2021, https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2707.210118

• Gillespie D, Meyers LA, Lachmann, Redd S, Zenilman J, The Experience of 2 Independent Schools With In-Person Learning During the COVID-19 Pandemic Journal of School Health, originally published March 25, 2021, doi: https://doi.org/10.1111/josh.13008

• Nazlıcan Arslan, Ozge Surer, David P. Morton, Haoxiang Yang, Michael Lachmann, Spencer Woody, Spencer J. Fox, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 alert stages, healthcare projections and mortality patterns in Austin Texas. May 5, 2021.

• Ingle T.A., Morrison M., Wang X., Mercer T., Karman V., Fox S., Meyers L.A., (2021) Projecting COVID-19 isolation bed requirements for people experiencing homelessness. PLoS ONE 16(5): e0251153. May 12, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0251153

• Du Z., Wang L., Yang B., Ali S.T., Tsang T.K., Shan S., Meyers L.A. Risk for international importations of variant SARS-CoV-2 originating in the United Kingdom. Emerging Infectious Diseases. May 27, 2021, https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2705.210050

   

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April 2021

• Rathouz P., Valencia V., Chang P., Morton D., Yang H., Surer O., Fox S., Meyers L.A, Matsui E., Haynes, A. Survival analysis methods for analysis of hospitalization data: Application to COVID-19 patient hospitalization experience. medRxiv 2021.04.14.21255511; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.04.14.21255511

• Woody S., Javan E., Johnson K., Pasco R., Johnson- León M., Lachmann M., Fox S., Meyers, L.A. Spatial distribution of COVID-19 infections and vaccinations in Austin, Texas.  April 12, 2021. doi: https://doi.org/10.15781/h5sx-q859

• Johnson, K. E., Lachmann, M., Stoddard, M., Pasco, R., Fox, S. J., Meyers, L.A., & Chakravarty, A. Detecting in-school transmission of SARS-COV-2 from case ratios and documented clusters. medRxiv. April 28, 2021, https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.04.26.21256136

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March 2021

• Stockmaier, S., Stroeymeyt, N., Shattuck, E. C., Hawley, D. M., Meyers, L. A., & Bolnick, D. I. (2021). Infectious diseases and social distancing in nature. Science, 371(6533).

• Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Spencer Woody, Kaitlyn E. Johnson, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Potential impacts of statewide relaxation of COVID-19 policies, the B.1.1.7 variant, and the vaccination in Austin , March, 2021.

• Kaitlyn E. Johnson, Spencer Woody, Remy Pasco, Cameron Matsui, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Emergence of the B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2 variant at the University of Texas at Austin , March 5, 2021.

• Kaitlyn E. Johnson, Spencer Woody, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Jessica Klima, Terrance S. Hines, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Early estimates of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant emergence in a university setting. medRxiv. https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.03.05.21252541

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February 2021

• Kaitlyn E. Johnson, Spencer Woody, Remy Pasco, Cameron Matsui, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Early introductions and projections of the B.1.1.7 SARS-CoV-2 variant at the University of Texas at Austin, February 12, 2021.

• Du, Z., Pandey, A., Bai, Y., Fitzpatrick, M. C., Chinazzi, M., y Piontti, A. P., Lachmann, M., Vespignani, A., Cowling, B.J., Galvani, A.P., & Meyers, L. A. (2021). Comparative cost-effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 testing strategies in the USA: a modelling study. The Lancet Public Health. February 4, 2021.

• Pierce, K. A., Ho, E., Wang, X., Pasco, R., Du, Z., Zynda, G., Song, J., Wells, G., Fox, S. J., & Meyers, L. A. (2020). Early COVID-19 pandemic modeling: Three compartmental model cases studies from Texas, USA. Computing in Science & Engineering.

• Kaitlyn E. Johnson, Spencer Woody, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Jessica Klima, Terrance S. Hines, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Supplementary Material to “Early estimates of SARS-CoV-2 B.1.1.7 variant emergence in a university setting". February 12, 2021

• Cramer, Estee Y.; Lopez, Velma K.; Niemi, Jarad; George, Glover E.; Cegan, Jeffrey C.; Dettwiller, Ian D.; England, William P.; Farthing, Matthew W.; Hunter, Robert H.; Lafferty, Brandon; Linkov, Igor; Mayo, Michael L.; Parno, Matthew D.; Rowland, Michael A.; Trump, Benjamin D.; Wang, Lily; Gao, Lei; Gu, Zhiling; Kim, Myungjin; Wang, Yueying; Walker, Jo W.; Slayton, Rachel B.; Johansson, Michael; Biggerstaff, Matthew; and et al. "Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the US". Statistics Publications, February 5, 2021, 10.1101/2021.02.03.21250974   

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January 2021

• Xutong Wang, Zhanwei Du, Kaitlyn Johnson, Spencer Fox, Michael Lachmann, Jason S McLellan, Lauren Ancel Meyers. The impacts of COVID-19 vaccine timing, number of doses, and risk prioritization on mortality in the US. doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.18.21250071

• Darria Long Gillespie, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Michael Lachmann, Stephen C Redd, Jonathan M Zenilman. doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.26.21250065

• Cameron Matsui, Kaitlyn E. Johnson, Remy Pasco, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Campus Introduction Risks for Spring 2021 at the University of Texas at Austin. January 29, 2021. doi: https://sites.cns.utexas.edu/sites/default/files/cid/files/ut_spring_introductions.pdf

• Emily Javan, Emily Kushnereit, Briana Betke, Spencer Woody, Remy Pasco, Kelly Pierce, Kaitlyn Johnson, Maureen Johnson-León, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Heterogeneous burden of the COVID-19 pandemic in Central Texas. January 27, 2021; doi: https://doi.org/10.15781/m60y-tc90

• Zhanwei Du, Lin Wang, Bingyi Yang, Sheikh Taslim Ali, Tim K. Tsang, Songwei Shan, Peng Wu, Eric Lau, Benjamin J Cowling, Lauren Ancel Meyers. International risk of the new variant COVID-19 importations originating in the United Kingdom. medRxiv 2021.01.09.21249384; doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.01.09.21249384

• Haoxiang Yang, Michael Lachmann, Özge Sürer, Spencer J. Fox, David P. Morton, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Projecting Need for a COVID-19 Alternate Care Site (ACS) in Austin. Jan. 8, 2021. doi: https://doi.org/10.15781/3ff3-q193

• Risanger, S., Singh, B., Morton, D., & Meyers, L. A. (2020). Selecting pharmacies for COVID-19 testing to ensure access. Health Care Management Science, 1-9.

• Seyed M Moghadas, Thomas N Vilches, Kevin Zhang, Chad R Wells, Affan Shoukat, Burton H Singer, Lauren Ancel Meyers, Kathleen M Neuzil, Joanne M Langley, Meagan C Fitzpatrick, Alison P Galvani, The Impact of Vaccination on Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) Outbreaks in the United States, Clinical Infectious Diseases, 2021;,ciab079, https://doi.org/10.1093/cid/ciab079

• Moghadas, S. M., Vilches, T. N., Zhang, K., Wells, C. R., Shoukat, A., Singer, B. H., Meyers, L. A., Neuzil, K. M., Langley, J. M., Fitzpatrick, M. C., & Galvani, A. P. (2021). The impact of vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, 2020.11.27.20240051. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.27.20240051

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December 2020

• Du, Z., Fox, S. J., Ingle, T., Pignone, M. P., & Meyers, L. A. (2020). Projecting the combined healthcare burden of seasonal influenza and COVID-19. medRxiv. doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.20.20248599

• Haoxiang Yang, Özge Sürer, Daniel Duque, David P. Morton, Bismark Singh, Spencer J. Fox, Remy Pasco, Kelly Pierce, Paul Rathouz, Zhanwei Du, Michael Pignone, Mark E. Escott, Stephen I. Adler, S. Claiborne Johnston, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Design of COVID-19 Staged Alert Systems to Ensure Healthcare Capacity with Minimal Closures. doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.26.20152520

• Michael Lachmann, Spencer Fox, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. Potential Impact of Holiday Gatherings on COVID-19 Hospitalizations in Austin. doi: https://doi.org/10.15781/vwnv-7v31

• Spencer J. Fox, Pratyush Potu, Michael Lachmann, Ravi Srinivasan, Lauren Ancel Meyers. The COVID-19 herd immunity threshold is not low: A re-analysis of European data from spring of 2020. medRxiv, December 3, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.12.01.20242289

• Varun Kompella, Roberto Capobianco, Stacy Jong, Jonathan Browne, Spencer Fox, Lauren Meyers, Peter Wurman, Peter Stone. Reinforcement Learning for Optimization of COVID-19 Mitigation policies. Arxiv, October 20, 2020

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November 2020

• Shea, K., Borchering, R. K., Probert, W., Howerton, E., Bogich, T. L., Li, S., van Panhuis, W. G., Viboud, C., Aguás, R., Belov, A., Bhargava, S. H., Cavany, S., Chang, J. C., Chen, C., Chen, J., Chen, S., Chen, Y., Childs, L. M., Chow, C. C., Crooker, I., … Runge, M. C. (2020). COVID-19 reopening strategies at the county level in the face of uncertainty: Multiple Models for Outbreak Decision Support. medRxiv: the preprint server for health sciences,  November 5, 2020, 2020.11.03.20225409. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.11.03.20225409

• Emily M. Javan, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Estimating the unseen emergence of COVID-19 in the US. medRxiv, November 13, 2020. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.06.20053561

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October 2020

• Singh, Bismark, Simon Risanger, David Morton, Michael Pignone, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. Expanding Access to COVID-19 Tests through US Postal Service Facilities. Medical Decision Making, (October 2020). https://doi.org/10.1177/0272989X20969690.

• Pasco RF, Fox SJ, Johnston SC, Pignone M, Meyers LA. Estimated Association of Construction Work With Risks of COVID-19 Infection and Hospitalization in Texas. JAMA Netw Open. 2020;3(10):e2026373. doi:10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2020.26373

• Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Mauricio Tec, Remy Pasco, Zhanwei Du, Spencer Woody, Maytal Dahan, Kelly Gaither, Kelly Pierce, James Scott, Gordon Wells, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Texas Trauma Service Area (TSA) COVID-19 transmission estimates and healthcare projections - Updated Oct. 20, 2020. Oct. 20, 2020.

• Wang X, Pasco RF, Du Z, Petty M, Fox SJ, Galvani AP, et al. Impact of social distancing measures on coronavirus disease healthcare demand, central Texas, USA. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Oct. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2610.201702

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September 2020

• Cameron Matsui, Remy Pasco, Kaitlyn Johnson, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Transmission Risks for Reopening The University of Texas at Austin. September 25, 2020. doi: https://doi.org/10.15781/gz1w-y228

• Xutong Wang, Zhanwei Du, George Huang, Remy F. Pasco, Spencer J. Fox, Alison P. Galvani, Michael Pignone, S. Claiborne Johnston, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. Effects of cocooning on coronavirus disease rates after relaxing social distancing. Emerg Infect Dis. September 21, 2020. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2612.201930

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August 2020

• Kelly Pierce, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Remy Pasco, Lauren Ancel Meyers Houston Area COVID-19 School Introduction Risks August 28, 2020.

• Cameron Matsui, Kaitlyn Johnson, Remy Pasco, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Campus Introduction and Gathering Risks for Reopening the University of Texas at Austin. August 20, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/aa7a-0c58

• Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Mauricio Tec, Remy Pasco, Maureen Johnson, Jenny Lu, Zhanwei Du, Spencer Woody, Jennifer Starling, Maytal Dahan, Kelly Gaither, Kelly Pierce, James Scott, Gordon Wells, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Texas Trauma Service Area (TSA) COVID-19 transmission estimates and healthcare projections: August 19, 2020. August 19, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/tj6d-dm41

• Zhanwei Du, Emily Javan, Ciara Nugent, Benjamin J. Cowling, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Using the COVID-19 to influenza ratio to estimate early pandemic spread in Wuhan, China and Seattle, US. August 12, 2020.

• Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Mauricio Tec, Remy Pasco, MaureenJohnson, Jenny Lu, Zhanwei Du, Spencer Woody, Jennifer Starling, Maytal Dahan, Kelly Gaither, Kelly Pierce, James Scott, Gordon Wells, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Texas Trauma Service Area (TSA) COVID-19 transmission estimates and healthcare projections. Presented on August 1, 2020.

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July 2020

• Spencer J. Fox, Michael Lachmann, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Risks of COVID-19 Introductions as Schools Reopen. Presented to The New York Times July 31, 2020.

• Duque, D., Morton, D. P., Singh, B., Du, Z., Pasco, R., & Meyers, L. A. (2020). Timing social distancing to avert unmanageable COVID-19 hospital surges. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117(33), 19873-19878.

• Spencer J. Fox, Michael Lachmann, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Campus Introduction Risks for School Reopenings. Presented on July 22, 2020.

• Mauricio Tec, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Remy Pasco, Spencer Woody, Jennifer Starling, Maytal Dahan, Kelly Gaither, James Scott, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Austin COVID-19 transmission estimates and healthcare projections. July 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/jaa9-ff48

• Scarpino SV, Scott JG, Eggo RM, Clements B, Dimitrov NB, Meyers LA (2020) Socioeconomic bias in influenza surveillance. PLoS Comput Biol 16(7): e1007941, July 9, 2020, https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1007941

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June 2020

• Spencer J Fox, Remy Pasco, Mauricio Tec, Zhanwei Du, Michael Lachmann, James Scott, Lauren Ancel Meyers. The impact of asymptomatic COVID-19 infections on future pandemic waves. medRxiv. 2020 June 22.

• Wang X, Pasco RF, Du Z, Petty M, Fox SJ, Galvani AP, et al. Impact of social distancing measures on coronavirus disease healthcare demand, central Texas, USA. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 Oct. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2610.201702

• Spencer J Fox, Remy Pasco, Mauricio Tec, Zhanwei Du, Michael Lachmann, James Scott, Lauren Ancel Meyers. The impact of asymptomatic COVID-19 infections on future pandemic waves. medRxiv. 2020 June 22.

• Haoxiang Yang, Daniel Duque, Özge Sürer, David P. Morton, Remy Pasco, Kelly Pierce, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Staged Strategy to Avoid Hospital Surge and Preventable Mortality, while Reducing the Economic Burden of Social Distancing Measures. Presented on June 15, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/hmf9-cx87

• Du Z, Xu X, Wang L, Fox SJ, Cowling BJ, Galvani AP, et al. Effects of proactive social distancing on COVID-19 outbreaks in 58 cities, China. Emerg Infect Dis. 2020 June 11. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2609.201932

• Lauren Ancel Meyers, Zhanwei Du, Robert M. Krug. Hoping for a COVID-19 antiviral that limits virus spread. Nature Microbiology. June 2, 2020.

• Zhanwei Du, Ciara Nugent, Alison P. Galvani, Robert M. Krug & Lauren Ancel Meyers. Modeling mitigation of influenza epidemics by baloxavir. Nature Communications. June 2, 2020.

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May 2020

• Daniel Duque, Mauricio Tec, David P. Morton, James Scott, Haoxiang Yang, Remy Pasco, Kelly Pierce, Spencer J. Fox, Michael Pignone, Parker Hudson, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. Staged Strategy to Avoid Hospital Surge and Preventable Mortality, while Reducing the Economic Burden of Social Distancing Measures. Presented to the city of Austin and Travis County on May 18, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/xw18-9m27

• Daniel Duque, David Paul Morton, Bismark Singh, Zhanwei Du, Remy Pasco, Lauren Ancel Meyers, COVID-19: How to Relax Social Distancing If You Must. medRxiv. 2020 May 05.

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April 2020

• Kelly Pierce, Ethan Ho, Xutong Wang, Remy Pasco, Zhanwei Du, Spencer Fox, Greg Zynda, Jawon Song, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Healthcare Demand Projections: Beaumont-Port Arthur MSA, Texas. April 29, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/j8dw-ev41

• Kelly Pierce, Ethan Ho, Xutong Wang, Remy Pasco, Zhanwei Du, Spencer Fox, Greg Zynda, Jawon Song, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Healthcare Demand Projections: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land MSA, Texas. April 28, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/z822-gr62

• Daniel Duque, David P. Morton, Bismark Singh, Zhanwei Du, Remy Pasco, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 in Austin, Texas: Averting healthcare surges while relaxing social distancing. April 28, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/dvm2-w474

• Woody, S., Tec, M. G., Dahan, M., Gaither, K., Lachmann, M., Fox, S., Meyers, L.A., & Scott, J. G. (2020). Projections for first-wave COVID-19 deaths across the US using social-distancing measures derived from mobile phones. medRxiv. April 26, 2020.

• Du, Z., L. Wang, S. Cauchemez, X. Xu, X. Wang, B.J. Cowling, L.A. Meyers (2020). Risk for transportation of coronavirus disease from Wuhan to other cities in China. Emerging Infectious Diseases. DOI: 10.3201/eid2605.200146.

• Xutong Wang, Zhanwei Du, George Huang, Spencer Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 in Austin, Texas: Relaxing Social Distancing Measures. April 23, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/cytm-ev55

• Xutong Wang, Remy Pasco, Kelly Pierce, Zhanwei Du, Spencer Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Healthcare Demand Projections: Austin, Texas: April 20, 2020. Posted online April 21, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/503k-c813

• Xutong Wang, Remy F Pasco, Zhanwei Du, Michaela Petty, Spencer J Fox, Alison P Galvani, Michael Pignone, S. Claiborne Johnston, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Impact of Social Distancing Measures on COVID-19 Healthcare Demand in Central Texas. medRxiv. 2020 Apr 22.

• Emily Javan, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. The unseen and pervasive threat of COVID-19 throughout the US. medRxiv. 2020 Apr 18.

• Moghadas SM, Shoukat A, Fitzpatrick MC, Wells CR, Sah P, Pandey A, Sachs JD, Wang Z, Meyers LA, Singer BH, Galvani AP. Projecting hospital utilization during the COVID-19 outbreaks in the United States. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2020 Apr 3.

• Remy Pasco, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 in Austin, Texas: Epidemiological Assessment of Grocery Shopping. April 17, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/n0ha-3c71

• Spencer Woody, Mauricio Tec, Maytal Dahan, Kelly Gaither, Michael Lachmann, Spencer J. Fox, Lauren Ancel Meyers, and James Scott. Projections for first-wave COVID-19 deaths across the U.S. using social-distancing measures derived from mobile phones. April 17, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/ry5m-r054

• Du, Z., Xu, X., Wu, Y., Wang, L., Cowling, B. J., & Meyers, L. A. (2020). COVID-19 serial interval estimates based on confirmed cases in public reports from 86 Chinese cities. medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences, April 27, 2020, 2020.04.23.20075796. https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.04.23.20075796

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March 2020

• Morrison, Maike, Lauren A. Castro, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. Conscientious vaccination exemptions in kindergarten to eighth-grade children across Texas schools from 2012 to 2018: A regression analysis. PLoS medicine 17, no. 3 (2020): e1003049.

• Zhanwei Du, Xutong Wang, Remy Pasco, Michaela Petty, Spencer J. Fox, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Healthcare Demand Projections: 22 Texas Cities. First published: March 31, 2020; updated April 5, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/tmvs-g131

• Wells CR, Sah P, Moghadas SM, Pandey A, Shoukat A, Wang Y, Wang Z, Meyers LA, Singer BH, Galvani AP. Impact of international travel and border control measures on the global spread of the novel 2019 coronavirus outbreak. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences. 2020 Mar 31;117(13):7504-9.

• Zhanwei Du, Ciara Nugent, Benjamin J Cowling, Lauren Ancel Meyers. Hundreds of severe pediatric COVID-19 infections in Wuhan prior to the lockdown. medRxiv. 2020 Mar 27.

• Meyers LA. The secret life of coronavirus: Why we need such drastic social distancing measures. The Economist Intelligence Unit. 2020 Mar 20.

• Remy Pasco, Xutong Wang, Michaela Petty, Zhanwei Du, Spencer J. Fox, Michael Pignone, Clay Johnston, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. COVID-19 Healthcare Demand Projections: Austin, Texas. March 26, 2020. https://doi.org/10.15781/tmvs-g131
   
• Caroline O. Buckee, et. al., with Lauren Ancel Meyers. Aggregated mobility data could help fight COVID-19. Science. March 23, 2020. DOI: 10.1126/science.abb8021
   
• Zhanwei Du, Xiaoke Xu, Ye Wu, Lin Wang, Benjamin J. Cowling, and Lauren Ancel Meyers. Serial Interval of COVID-19 among Publicly Reported Confirmed Cases. Emerging Infectious Diseases. June, 2020. [Originally published March 19, 2020]. https://doi.org/10.3201/eid2606.200357

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Other Relevant Publications

• Ebola vaccination in the Democratic Republic of the Congo
  Chad R. Wells, Abhishek Pandey, Alyssa S. Parpia, Meagan C. Fitzpatrick, Lauren A. Meyers, Burton H. Singer, Alison P. Galvani
  PNAS, May 14, 2019.
  https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1817329116
• Optimization Based Decision-Support Tools for Influenza Pandemic Preparedness
  Bismark Singh, Hsin-Chan Huang, David Morton, Alexander Gutfraind, Ozgur Araz, Gregory Johnson, Bruce Clements, Lauren Ancel Meyers.
  Sandia National Laboratories, May 21, 2019.
• Early Detection of Influenza outbreaks in the United States 
  Kai Liu, Ravi Srinivasan, Lauren Ancel Meyers
  May 4, 2019 arXiv: 1903.01048
• Local risk perception enhances epidemic control
  Herrera-Diestra JL, Meyers LA
  PLoS One, 2019 — Journal Article
• Future epidemiological and economic impacts of universal influenza vaccines
  Sah P, Alfaro-Murillo JA, Fitzpatrick MC, Neuzil KM, Meyers LA, Singer BH, Galvani AP
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2019 — Journal Article
• Early prediction of antigenic transitions for influenza A/H3N2
  Castro LA, Bedford T, Meyers LA
  PLoS Comput. Biol., 2020 — Journal Article
• Optimal multi-source forecasting of seasonal influenza
  Ertem Z, Raymond D, Meyers LA
  PLoS Comput. Biol., 2018 — Journal Article
• Downgrading disease transmission risk estimates using terminal importations
  Fox SJ, Bellan SE, Perkins TA, Johansson MA, Meyers LA
  PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 2019 — Journal Article
• DC grand rounds: modeling and public health decision-making
  Fischer LS, Santibanez S, Hatchett RJ, Jernigan DB, Meyers LA, Thorpe PG, Meltzer MI
  MMWR Surveill. Summ., 2016 — Journal Article
• Seasonality in risk of pandemic influenza emergence
  Fox SJ, Miller JC, Meyers LA
  PLoS Comput. Biol., 2017 — Journal Article
• Equalizing access to pandemic influenza vaccines through optimal allocation to public health distribution points
  Huang HC, Singh B, Morton DP, Johnson GP, Clements B, Meyers LA
  PLoS One, 2017 — Journal Article
• Stockpiling ventilators for influenza pandemics
  Huang HC, Araz OM, Morton DP, Johnson GP, Damien P, Clements B, Meyers LA
  Emerg. Infect. Dis., 2017 — Journal Article
• Assessing real-time Zika risk in the United States
  Castro LA, Fox SJ, Chen X, Liu K, Bellan SE, Dimitrov NB, Galvani AP, Meyers LA
  BMC Infect. Dis., 2017 — Journal Article
• Disease surveillance on complex social networks
  Herrera JL, Srinivasan R, Brownstein JS, Galvani AP, Meyers LA
  PLoS Comput. Biol., 2016 — Journal Article
• Impact of asymptomatic infection and acquired immunity on the spread and control of Ebola
  Bellan SE, Pulliam JR, Dushoff J, Meyers LA
  Lancet, 2014 — Journal Article
• Data blindspots: high-tech disease surveillance misses the poor
  Scarpino SV, Scott JG, Eggo R, Dimitrov NB, Meyers LA
  Online J. Public Health Inform., 2016 — Journal Article
• Respiratory virus transmission dynamics determine timing of asthma exacerbation peaks: Evidence from a population-level model
  Eggo RM, Scott JG, Galvani AP, Meyers LA
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2016 — Journal Article
• Enhancing disease surveillance with novel data streams: challenges and opportunities
  Althouse BM, Scarpino SV, Meyers LA, Ayers JW, Bargsten M, Baumbach J, Brownstein JS, Castro L, Clapham H, Cummings DA
  EPJ Data Science, 2015 — Journal Article
• Evaluating Ebola vaccine trials: insights from simulation
  Pulliam JR, Bellan SE, Gambhir M, Meyers LA, Dushoff J
  Lancet Infect. Dis., 2015 — Journal Article
• Epidemic wave dynamics attributable to urban community structure: A theoretical characterization of disease transmission in a large network
  Hoen AG, Hladish TJ, Eggo RM, Lenczner M, Brownstein JS, Meyers LA
  J. Med. Internet Res., 2015 — Journal Article
• Harnessing case isolation and ring vaccination to control Ebola
  Wells C, Yamin D, Ndeffo-Mbah ML, Wenzel N, Gaffney SG, Townsend JP, Meyers LA, Fallah M, Nyenswah TG, Altice FL
  PLoS Negl. Trop. Dis., 2015 — Journal Article
• Statistical power and validity of Ebola vaccine trials in Sierra Leone: a simulation study of trial design and analysis
  Bellan SE, Pulliam JR, Pearson CA, Champredon D, Fox SJ, Skrip L, Galvani AP, Gambhir M, Lopman BA, Porco TC
  Lancet Infect. Dis., 2015 — Journal Article
• Efficacy and optimization of palivizumab injection regimens against respiratory syncytial virus infection
  Gutfraind A, Galvani AP, Meyers LA
  JAMA Pediatr., 2015 — Journal Article
• Evaluating large-scale blood transfusion therapy for the current Ebola epidemic in Liberia
  Gutfraind A, Meyers LA
  J. Infect. Dis., 2015 — Journal Article
• Optimizing distribution of pandemic influenza antiviral drugs
  Singh B, Huang HC, Morton DP, Johnson GP, Gutfraind A, Galvani AP, Clements B, Meyers LA
  Emerg. Infect. Dis., 2015 — Journal Article
• Epidemiological and viral genomic sequence analysis of the 2014 Ebola outbreak reveals clustered transmission
  Scarpino SV, Iamarino A, Wells C, Yamin D, Ndeffo-Mbah M, Wenzel NS, Fox SJ, Nyenswah T, Altice FL, Galvani AP
  Clin. Infect. Dis., 2015 — Journal Article
• Opinion: Mathematical models: A key tool for outbreak response
  Lofgren ET, Halloran ME, Rivers CM, Drake JM, Porco TC, Lewis B, Yang W, Vespignani A, Shaman J, Eisenberg JN
  Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 2014 — Journal Article
• Probabilistic uncertainty analysis of epidemiological modeling to guide public health intervention policy
  Gilbert JA, Meyers LA, Galvani AP, Townsend JP
  Epidemics, 2014 — Journal Article
• Optimal targeting of seasonal influenza vaccination toward younger ages is robust to parameter uncertainty
  Mbah ML, Medlock J, Meyers LA, Galvani AP, Townsend JP
  Vaccine, 2013 — Journal Article
• Mathematical approaches to infectious disease prediction and control
  Meyers LA, Dimitrov N
  INFORMS, Tutorials in OPerations Research, 2010 — Journal Article
• The impact of past epidemics on future disease dynamics
  Bansal S, Meyers LA
  J. Theor. Biol., 2012 — Journal Article
• Simulating school closure policies for cost effective pandemic decision making
  Araz OM, Damien P, Paltiel DA, Burke S, Van De Geijn B, Galvani A, Meyers LA
  BMC Public Health, 2012 — Journal Article
• Early real-time estimation of the basic reproduction number of emerging infectious diseases
  Davoudi B, Miller JC, Meza R, Meyers LA, Earn DJ, Pourbohloul B
  Physical Review X, 2012 — Journal Article
• Geographic prioritization of distributing pandemic influenza vaccines
  Araz OM, Galvani A, Meyers LA
  Health Care Manag. Sci., 2012 — Journal Article
• Optimizing provider recruitment for influenza surveillance networks
  Scarpino SV, Dimitrov NB, Meyers LA
  PLoS Comput. Biol., 2012 — Journal Article
• EpiFire: An open source C++ library and application for contact network epidemiology
  Hladish T, Melamud E, Barrera LA, Galvani A, Meyers LA
  BMC Bioinformatics, 2012 — Journal Article
• The impact of imitation on vaccination behavior in social contact networks
  Mbah ML, Liu J, Bauch CT, Tekel YI, Medlock J, Meyers LA, Galvani AP
  PLoS Comput. Biol., 2012 — Journal Article
• Optimal H1N1 vaccination strategies based on self-interest versus group interest
  Shim E, Meyers LA, Galvani AP
  BMC Public Health, 2011 — Journal Article
• Network perspectives on infectious disease dynamics
  Meyers LA, Kerr B, Koelle K
  Interdiscip. Perspect. Infect. Dis., 2011 — Journal Article
• Vaccination against 2009 pandemic H1N1 in a population dynamical model of Vancouver, Canada: timing is everything
  Conway JM, Tuite AR, Fisman DN, Hupert N, Meza R, Davoudi B, English K, Van den Driessche P, Brauer F, Ma J
  BMC Public Health, 2011 — Journal Article
• Who got vaccinated against H1N1 pandemic influenza?–A longitudinal study in four US cities
  Li M, Chapman GB, Ibuka Y, Meyers LA, Galvani A
  Psychol. Health, 2012 — Journal Article
• Impact of imitation processes on the effectiveness of ring vaccination
  Wells CR, Tchuenche JM, Meyers LA, Galvani AP, Bauch CT
  Bull. Math. Biol., 2011 — Journal Article
• Mathematical approaches to infectious disease prediction and control
  Dimitrov NB, Meyers LA
  Risk and optimization in an uncertain world, 2010 — Book Chapter
• Optimizing tactics for use of the us antiviral strategic national stockpile for pandemic influenza
  Dimitrov NB, Goll S, Hupert N, Pourbohloul B, Meyers LA
  PLoS One, 2011 — Journal Article
• Effects of heterogeneous and clustered contact patterns on infectious disease dynamics
  Volz EM, Miller JC, Galvani A, Meyers LA
  PLoS Comput. Biol., 2011 — Journal Article
• Erratic flu vaccination emerges from short-sighted behavior in contact networks
  Cornforth DM, Reluga TC, Shim E, Bauch CT, Galvani AP, Meyers LA
  PLoS Comput. Biol., 2011 — Journal Article
• The dynamics of risk perceptions and precautionary behavior in response to 2009 (H1N1) pandemic influenza
  Ibuka Y, Chapman GB, Meyers LA, Li M, Galvani AP
  BMC Infect. Dis., 2010 — Journal Article
• The dynamic nature of contact networks in infectious disease epidemiology
  Bansal S, Read J, Pourbohloul B, Meyers LA
  J. Biol. Dyn., 2010 — Journal Article
• Optimizing allocation for a delayed influenza vaccination campaign
  Medlock J, Meyers LA
  PLoS Curr., 2009 — Journal Article
• Exploring biological network structure with clustered random networks
  Bansal S, Khandelwal S, Meyers L
  BMC Bioinformatics, 2009 — Journal Article
• The shifting demographic landscape of pandemic influenza
  Bansal S, Pourbohloul B, Hupert N, Grenfell B, Meyers LA
  PLoS One, 2010 — Journal Article
• Epidemic thresholds in dynamic contact networks
  Volz E, Meyers LA
  J. R. Soc. Interface, 2009 — Journal Article
• Network frailty and the geometry of herd immunity
  Ferrari MJ, Bansal S, Meyers LA, Bjørnstad ON
  Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2006 — Journal Article
• A comparative analysis of influenza vaccination programs
  Bansal S, Pourbohloul B, Meyers LA
  PLoS Med., 2006 — Journal Article
• Susceptible–infected–recovered epidemics in dynamic contact networks
  Volz E, Meyers LA
  Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 2007 — Journal Article
• Modeling control strategies of respiratory pathogens
  Pourbohloul B, Meyers LA, Skowronski DM, Krajden M, Patrick DM, Brunham RC
  Emerg. Infect. Dis., 2005 — Journal Article
• Initial human transmission dynamics of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009 virus in North America
  Pourbohloul B, Ahued A, Davoudi B, Meza R, Meyers LA, Skowronski DM, Villaseñor I, Galván F, Cravioto P, Earn DJ
  Influenza Other Respi. Viruses, 2009 — Journal Article
• Contact network epidemiology: Bond percolation applied to infectious disease prediction and control
  Meyers L
  Bull. Am. Math. Soc., 2007 — Journal Article
• When individual behaviour matters: homogeneous and network models in epidemiology
  Bansal S, Grenfell BT, Meyers LA
  J. R. Soc. Interface, 2007 — Journal Article
• Applying network theory to epidemics: control measures for Mycoplasma pneumoniae outbreaks
  Meyers LA, Newman MEJ, Martin M, Schrag S
  Emerg. Infect. Dis., 2003 — Journal Article
• Predicting epidemics on directed contact networks
  Meyers LA, Newman MEJ, Pourbohloul B
  J. Theor. Biol., 2006 — Journal Article
• Network theory and SARS: predicting outbreak diversity
  Meyers LA, Pourbohloul B, Newman ME, Skowronski DM, Brunham RC
  J. Theor. Biol., 2005 — Journal Article

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The UT COVID-19 Modeling Consortium is made possible, in part, by the generous support of Tito’s Handmade Vodka.